NCAA Men’s Basketball SEC Tournament Betting Preview: Regular-Season Champ Alabama Is the Favorite

The Top-seeded Crimson Tide have the best odds to win the conference tournament in Nashville.

The opening game of the SEC Tournament is scheduled for Wednesday evening at Bridgestone Arena in downtown Nashville.

The conference is home to five top-25 teams and a few more could make a case for themselves over the next several days.

Alabama won the league’s regular-season title and enters the tournament as the betting favorite. Fifth-seeded Tennessee has the next-best odds to win the conference tournament for the second year in a row.

In Kevin Sweeney’s latest bracket watch, six SEC teams are in the Big Dance (Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and Arkansas), with two more (Auburn and Mississippi State) on the bubble.

THE BRACKET. #SECMBB x #SECTourney pic.twitter.com/mfbPJPjlUf

— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) March 5, 2023

Here’s a team-by-team outlook heading into the tournament:

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (26–5, 16–2 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 16–14–1
KenPom Ranking: 3
NET Rating: 2
Odds to win SEC: +170 (1st)

Alabama is coming off a loss to Texas A&M heading into the SEC tournament, which it won two years ago. The Crimson Tide, ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25, are one of the most complete teams in the country with a highly graded defense and a top-10 scoring offense (82.8 ppg) that punishes opponents from beyond the arc (10 made threes per game). The star of the show is projected lottery pick Brandon Miller, who leads the conference in scoring (19.6 ppg). Alabama will play the winner of Mississippi State and Florida in the quarterfinals, both teams it defeated during the regular season.

No. 2 Texas A&M Aggies (23–8, 15–3 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 21–10
KenPom Ranking: 23
NET Rating: 23
Odds to win SEC: +500 (4th)

Texas A&M put a stamp on its stellar regular season with a six-point win over then-No. 2 Alabama over the weekend. Wade Taylor IV, the team’s top scorer (16.3 ppg) scored a season-high 28 to beat the Crimson Tide. The No. 18 Aggies now await the winner of Arkansas-Auburn in the quarterfinals. They split the series with the Razorbacks and swept the Tigers.

Silas Walker/Imago

No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats (21–10, 12–6 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 15–16
KenPom Ranking: 21
NET Rating: 19
Odds to win SEC: +450 (3rd)

Kentucky earned a bye to the quarterfinals after it won five of its final six games, including a road victory over Arkansas in the season finale behind Antonio Reeves’s 37 points. Reeves (14.2 ppg) is second on the team in scoring behind Oscar Tshiebwe (16.4 ppg, 13.1 rpg. The No. 18 Wildcats will play either Vanderbilt, Georgia or LSU and they surprisingly had trouble with each. They split with the Commodores and Bulldogs and beat the last-place Tigers by three.

No. 4 Missouri Tigers (23–8, 11–7 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 15–15–1
KenPom Ranking: 55
NET Rating: 48
Odds to win SEC: +2500 (7th)

Missouri is riding a four-game winning streak into the tournament that helped clinch its double bye to the quarterfinals. Its first game will be against either Tennessee, South Carolina or Ole Miss, all teams it beat in the regular season. Led by Kobe Brown (15.9 ppg), the No. 25 Tigers have a top-25 scoring offense and also rank among the nation’s top three-point shooting teams (9.4 makes per game).

No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers (22–9, 11–7 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 16–15
KenPom Ranking: 5
NET Rating: 3
Odds to win SEC: +280 (2nd)

After a 7–1 start in league play, Tennessee went 4–6 over its final 10 SEC games. Only two teams allow fewer points to opposing teams than the No. 17 Volunteers (57.5 ppg) and their offense, led by Sam Vescovi (12.7 ppg) ranks top 10 nationally in assists per game (17.1). Tennessee, which won the conference tournament a season ago, will play the winner of South Carolina-Ole Miss in the second round. It eked out a road win over the Rebels and blew out the Gamecocks by 40-plus in both meetings.

No. 6 Vanderbilt Commodores (18–13, 11–7 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 17–14
KenPom Ranking: 81
NET Rating: 83
Odds to win SEC: +3500 (8th)

Following an embarrassing 57-point loss to Alabama in late January, Vanderbilt went on to win eight of its final nine games and earn a bye to the second round. The Commodores will face the winner of LSU, which they lost to a few weeks ago, and Georgia, which they beat in January. Vanderbilt’s offense has carried it all year, but it lost its leading scorer Liam Robins (15 ppg, 6.8 rpg) to a season-ending leg injury against Kentucky two games ago, a major blow to a highly ranked unit.

No. 7 Auburn Tigers (20–11, 10–8 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 15–16
KenPom Ranking: 26
NET Rating: 32
Odds to win SEC: +1200 (T-5th)

The Tigers head to Nashville on a high note after they beat Tennessee in the regular-season finale. Auburn had its ups and downs this year but ultimately has a stout defense to fall back on led by Johni Broome, the team’s top scorer (14 ppg) who also swats more than two shots per game. The tournament begins for the Tigers in the second round against Arkansas, which they beat in early January.

No. 8 Florida Gators (16–15, 9–9 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 15–16
KenPom Ranking: 59
NET Rating: 59
Odds to win SEC: +10000 (10th)

The Gators lost their first three games without Colin Castleton (16 ppg, 7.7 rpg) after he suffered a season-ending hand injury a few weeks ago. In Castleton’s absence, Riley Kugel (9.7 ppg) and Will Richard (10.8 ppg) both stepped up down the stretch for Florida, which won its last two games. UF beat its second-round opponent, Mississippi State, in a tight road game in late January.

No. 9 Mississippi State Bulldogs (20–11, 8–10 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 16–14–1
KenPom Ranking: 45
NET Rating: 46
Odds to win SEC: +4500 (9th)

The Bulldogs picked things up in the back half of their SEC schedule, winning seven of their last 10 after a 1–7 start. Its top-10 defense (60.4 ppg) is a big reason why Mississippi State was always in the mix this year. Tolu Smith (15.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg) is the only double-digit scorer on the team, which is a poor shooting unit overall. The Bulldogs get the Gators first, a team they lost to at home in their one regular-season meeting.

No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks (19–12, 8–10 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 15–15–1
KenPom Ranking: 19
NET Rating: 18
Odds to win SEC: +1200 (T-5th)

Arkansas was up against a gauntlet schedule at the end of the regular season and lost all three games against Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. With one of the best defenses in the nation, the Razorbacks have upset potential, though they have a difficult draw in the second round against Auburn, which it lost to by 13 on the road in January. Between Ricky Council IV (16.5 ppg), Nick Smith Jr. (13.8 ppg) and Anthony Black (12.8 ppg, 4.2 apg), Arkansas has a talented trio closing games.

No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs (16–15, 6–12 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 11–20
KenPom Ranking: 148
NET Rating: 153
Odds to win SEC: +50000 (T-11th)

The Bulldogs head to Nashville on a season-worst five-game losing streak. Georgia’s last win was in mid-February and coincidentally came against LSU, which it will face in the first round. UGA shoots just above 41% from the field as a team and its two best scorers, Terry Roberts (13.3 ppg) and Kario Oquendo (12.8 ppg), both shoot sub-40%.

No. 12 South Carolina Gamecocks (11–20, 4–14 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 17–14
KenPom Ranking: 216
NET Rating: 228
Odds to win SEC: +80000 (13th)

After a 1–10 start in league play, South Carolina went 3–4 to close out the year and got the best of Georgia in its final regular-season game before the tournament. The Gamecocks split their series with the Rebels, who they will face in Round 1, and won the most recent meeting on the road a few weeks ago. South Carolina has one of the lowest-scoring offenses in Division I and its top scorer Gregory Jackson II (15.1 ppg) accounts for a sizable chunk of that average.

No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (11–20, 3–15 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 11–18–2
KenPom Ranking: 113
NET Rating: 129
Odds to win SEC: +50000 (T-11th)

Wins were few and far between for Ole Miss this season in conference play, but one of its few victories came on the road against South Carolina in January behind 23 points from Matthew Murrell (14.9 ppg), the team’s leading scorer. The Rebels did also lose to the Gamecocks, their Round 1 opponent, at home a few weeks ago.

No. 14 LSU Tigers (13–18, 2–16 SEC)
Against the Spread Record: 9–21–1
KenPom Ranking: 151
NET Rating: 155
Odds to win SEC: +100000 (14th)

The Tigers began the season 12–1 and then lost 17 of their next 18 games. They went on a 12-game losing streak to SEC opponents to begin 2023 that lasted nearly two months. LSU’s first-round game is against Georgia, which it lost to by two on the road in mid-February. Any run the Tigers might make will begin with KJ Williams (17.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg), the No. 2 scorer in the conference.

Betting Breakdown

Tennessee has to win two games first, but it could pose a challenge to Alabama reaching the conference championship. Missouri shouldn’t be ignored on that side of the bracket, either. Kentucky certainly benefits from an easy path to the semifinals, where it would have to beat either Auburn, Arkansas or Texas A&M to advance to the title game. The last time the Wildcats won the conference tournament was in 2018 and things are lining up for them to end that drought this year.

BET: Kentucky (+450)

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