2023 Men's NCAA Tournament: Bets and Predictions for the First Four

Betting analysis for the First Four games between No. 16 Southeast Missouri State and No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and No. 11 Pittsburgh and No. 11 Mississippi State.

The First Four, the precursor to the NCAA Tournament Round of 64, tips off Tuesday night from Dayton, Ohio.

The first two matchups pit Southeast Missouri State against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Pittsburgh against Mississippi State later on in the evening. The winner of the early game is the No. 16 seed in the South Region and will face No. 1 Alabama on Thursday. And the victor of the second game earns the No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region and a Friday draw against No. 6 Iowa State.

First Four results should not be cast aside. Just last year, Notre Dame got past Rutgers in Dayton to earn the No. 11 seed in the Round of 64 where it upset No. 6 Alabama. And in 2021, UCLA danced all the way from the First Four to the Final Four.

Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Odds 

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET | truTV

Spread: Southeast Missouri State +3.5 (-110) | Texas A&M-CC -3.5 (-118)

Moneyline: SEMO (+150) | AMCC (-188)

Over/Under: 153.5 — Over (-1125) | Under (-105)

It’s been more than two decades since Southeast Missouri State’s first and only other trip to the Big Dance. The Redhawks won the Ohio Valley Conference Championship in overtime to earn its spot in the First Four, the same stage where Texas A&M-Corpus Christi’s season ended a year ago. The Islanders will make their return to Dayton after they won their second consecutive Southland Conference Tournament.

Southeast Missouri State gets up and down the court at a blistering pace with the No. 7 adjusted tempo in the nation, per KenPom. Led by Phillip Russell (18.2 ppg, 5 apg), the Redhawks’ offense ranks top 50 in scoring average (77.7). Conversely, their defense ranks among the bottom 50 teams in points allowed (76).

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Texas A&M-CC’s offense is even more potent as it ranks 20th in scoring (80.4), fifth in free-throw percentage (79%) and among the top 50 teams by three-point percentage (36.8%). Trevian Tennyson (15.7 ppg), the team’s top scorer, is among the best three-point shooters in the NCAA. The Islanders’ defense (72.5 ppg allowed) isn’t anything special, but it is better than that of their First Four opponent.

Both teams have a trio of double-digit scorers at their disposal; Southeast Missouri State’s Russell is backed up by Chris Harris (15.4 ppg) and Israel Barnes (10.3 ppg) while Tennyson of Texas A&M-CC is flanked by Isaac Mushilla (14.4 ppg, 9.7 rpg) and Terrion Murdix (13.4 ppg, 5.4 apg). The Islanders have the advantage on the glass and they are the significantly better team from the free-throw and three-point lines.

In a contest with such a high over/under, back the team with the better offense. Texas A&M-CC, which is 15–8 against the spread as a favorite, will win and cover to avenge last year’s loss.

NCAA Men's Tournament Bets on SI Sportsbook

BEST BET: Texas A&M Corpus Christi -3.5 (-118)

Pittsburgh  vs. No. 11 Mississippi State Odds and Game Info

Time: 9:14 p.m. ET | truTV

Spread: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-110) | Mississippi State -1.5 (-118)

Moneyline: PITT (+100) | MSST (-125)

Over/Under: 132.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-110)

Pittsburgh and Mississippi State are both back in the Field of 68 after long tournament layoffs. The last time the Panthers were here was a first-round exit in 2016. The most recent trip for the Bulldogs was in 2019, and their stay was short-lived as well. Both teams lost to the eventual champions in the conference tournament quarterfinals last week—Pittsburgh to Duke and Mississippi State to Alabama.

The Panthers rank top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They do plenty of damage from beyond the arc where they rank 23rd in made threes per game (9.3) and shoot them at a respectable clip (36.1%). Jamarius Burton and Blake Hinson are the team’s top two scorers (15.6 ppg apiece) and Hinson leads Pitt in rebounds (6.2) and threes made (2.8) per game.

The Bulldogs' calling card is their stout defense, which is ranked sixth by KenPom. They allow the eighth-fewest points per game (60.4) and hold opponents under 31% from three, one of the best marks in the country. Tolu Smith is the only Mississippi State player who averages double-digit points (15.8 ppg) and he’s logged three consecutive double doubles heading into the tournament.

Outside shots weren’t falling for the Panthers in their last loss and they managed just 69 points, their lowest output in over a month. They can’t bank on three pointers falling in bunches against the Bulldogs’ tenacious perimeter defense. Mississippi State failed to crack 50 points last time out against Alabama and with a tempo ranked 334th in the country, it will be sure to slow the game down, especially against a potent offense.

Pitt may come out on top in the end, but this contest has the makings of a slogfest if the Bulldogs have their way.

NCAA Men's Tournament Bets on SI Sportsbook

BEST BET: Under 132.5 (-110)

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