March Madness First-Round Best Bets: Three Picks for Friday's Games

Three predictions against the spread for the second day of the 2023 men's NCAA tournament.

Day 2 of the NCAA Tournament brings on 16 more games and plenty of compelling Round of 64 matchups.

Which top seeds will dominate? And which underdogs will emerge? Only time will tell.

Just like Thursday, the games get going just past noon ET on Friday and go on pretty much all day. SI Betting has three more game breakdowns and a best bet for each below.

You can find the rest of our March Madness betting coverage here.

March Madness Odds: No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s 

Time: 2 p.m. ET | TBS

Spread: VCU +4 (-118) | Saint Mary’s -4 (-110)

Moneyline: VCU (+150) | SMC (-188)

Over/Under: 122.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-118)

VCU vs. Saint Mary's Best Bet: Under 122.5 (-110)

The Rams and Gaels have met just once before in the 2017 tournament, a first-round game that Saint Mary’s won, 85-77. The second meeting between the two programs projects to be more of a defensive showdown than an offensive shootout. VCU’s defense is in the top 20, per KenPom, and is a constant threat to cut off passing lanes and create turnovers. Randy Bennett’s team ranks top 10 by that same metric and No. 5 nationally in points allowed per game (60.1).

The Gaels have more firepower on offense, led by Logan Johnson (14.7 ppg) and Aidan Mahaney (14.5 ppg). However, they operate at the fifth-slowest tempo in DI and though they shoot the three well, they don’t attempt all that many. Adrian Baldwin Jr. (12.7 ppg) is the top scorer for the Rams, who get up and down the floor quicker than their opponent but aren’t nearly as efficient on offense.

The under has hit in 59% of VCU’s games this season, including three of its last four, and it’s been a 50-50 proposition for Saint Mary’s on the year. This is the lowest over/under of the day, and if these teams do push the pace it could be in danger early on. But if these defenses deliver, this is bound to be a low-scoring contest.

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March Madness Odds: No. 11 Pittsburgh  vs. No. 6 Iowa State 

Time: 3:10 p.m. ET | truTV

Spread: Pittsburgh +4 (-110) | Iowa State -4 (-118)

Moneyline: PITT (+150) | ISU (-188)

Over/Under: 130.5 – Over (-118) | Under (-110)

Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State Best Bet: Under 130.5 (-110)

The Panthers eked out a win over Mississippi State on Tuesday in the First Four to set up this matchup with the Cyclones, which will be a battle between two conflicting styles of play. Pitt relies on its offense, specifically the three-point shot, and Iowa State grinds out games with its top-10 defense at a sluggish pace. That’s how it pulled off three wins against No. 3 Baylor this season, including two in the last two weeks.

Jaren Holmes (13.4) and Gabe Kalscheur (12.9 ppg) are the two leading scorers for the Cyclones and the only players on the team who have double-digit scoring averages. They are not a strong shooting team from the free-throw or three-point line, which contributes to their sub-70-point scoring average. The defense will have to account for the Panthers’ Blake Hinson (15.5 ppg), the team’s top rebounder who’s also a threat from deep. Pittsburgh is a knockdown team from the foul line (76.1%), which could pose a problem for Iowa State, which fouls frequently.

The Cyclones have the 10th-highest under hit rate (65.6%) in the NCAA and the under is 7–3 in their last 10 games. Pittsburgh favors the over and only 38.2% of its games have hit the under this season, including just three of their last 10. Something has to give, and I think Iowa State can dictate the pace and slow down the Panthers, similar to how Mississippi State did.

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March Madness Odds: No. 14 Grand Canyon  vs. No. 3 Gonzaga 

Time: 7:35 p.m. ET | truTV

Spread: Grand Canyon +15.5 (-118) | Gonzaga -15.5 (-110)

Moneyline: GCU (+800) | GONZ (-1613)

Over/Under: 156 – Over (-118) | Under (-110)

Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga Best Bet: Over 156 (-110)

The expectation when the Antelopes and Bulldogs take the court is offensive fireworks and it’s easy to see why. Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring (87.5 ppg) and is the No. 1 offense on KenPom. Grand Canyon is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country (38.3%) and has the highest over hit rate (75.4%) in DI.

The Bulldogs are led by Drew Timme (20.9 ppg), one of the top scorers in the country, and he has three other teammates who have double-digit scoring averages. Gonzaga’s defense tightened up in the WCC tournament and allowed just 73 points to San Francisco in the semifinal and 51 in the championship game against Saint Mary’s. Still, the over hit in their previous eight games and they broke 90 points four times during that stretch.

Rayshon Harrison (17.7 ppg) is the top scoring threat for GCU, a team that is full of capable shooters. The Antelopes operate at a much slower pace than the Bulldogs, but their defense can and has been exploited and the over has hit in each of their last four games.

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