March Madness Picks for Sweet 16: Two Bets and Predictions for Friday's Games

Both remaining No. 1 seeds in the men's NCAA tournament are in action on Friday, so look out for big spreads on the second day of the Sweet 16.

The last two remaining No. 1 seeds in the men's NCAA tournament are both scheduled to play on the second day of the Sweet 16.

The first game to tip off pits the top overall seed, Alabama, against No. 5 San Diego State. And the next game will feature No. 1 Houston and No. 5 Miami, two teams that are both fresh off deep March Madness runs and are looking to repeat that recent success.

Below is a game breakdown and a best bet for both games. You can find a pair of picks for two of Thursday’s Sweet 16 games here.

March Madness Odds: No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 1 Alabama

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET | TBS

Spread: San Diego State +7.5 (-110) | Alabama -7.5 (-118)

Moneyline: SDSU (+260) | BAMA (-350)

Over/Under: 137 – Over (-118) | Under (-110)

San Diego State vs. Alabama Best Bet: Alabama -7.5 (-118)

Place your bets on the Men's NCAA Tournament on SI Sportsbook

The Aztecs made it past a pair of double-digit seeds to set up a meeting with the top-seeded Crimson Tide. SDSU beat No. 12 Charleston, 63-57, in the Round of 64 and rolled No. 13 Furman, 75-52, to match the program’s deepest run since 2014. Alabama throttled No. 16 Texas A&M-CC, 96-75, and No. 8 Maryland, 73-51, to get back to the Sweet 16, where its run ended in 2021.

The Crimson Tide, who rank No. 18 nationally in adjusted offense and second in adjusted defense, have looked the part of the best team in the tournament. And that’s been in spite of lackluster play from projected top-five pick Brandon Miller, who went scoreless in the first tournament game and finished with 19 points on 5-17 shooting last time out. Alabama has gotten contributions from Jahvon Quinerly, Nick Pringle and Charles Bediako, but it will likely need more from its top scorer and SEC Player of the Year this round against a stifling defense.

San Diego State has allowed a combined 109 points through two games and held both of its opponents below 35% from the field. The Aztecs win with their defense, which is ranked fifth in DI in adjusted efficiency. Their offense came to life against the Paladins as four players finished in double figures, led by Micah Parish’s 16 points off the bench. That was after Matt Bradley, the team’s leading scorer and only player who averages 10-plus points per game, had a game-high 17 in the first round.

SDSU will try its best to slow down the Tide, who operate at a blistering pace, especially compared with their opponent (No. 5 in tempo compared to No. 263). However, Alabama, the best rebounding team in the NCAA, has the edge on the glass and in terms of top-end talent. The Aztecs might be able to keep this game competitive, especially with their elite three-point defense, but the better team, which is 20–15–1 against the spread this season, will pull away eventually.

March Madness Odds: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 1 Houston

Time: 7:45 p.m. ET | CBS

Spread: Miami +7 (-118) | Houston -7 (-110)

Moneyline: MIA (+250) | HOU (-333)

Over/Under: 137.5 – Over (-118) | Under (-110)

Miami vs. Houston Best Bet: Miami +7 (-110)

Place your bets on the Men's NCAA Tournament on SI Sportsbook

The Hurricanes and Cougars both advanced to the Elite Eight last year and only one of them will be returning this March. Miami rallied late to defeat No. 12 Drake, 63-56, and had no problem dispatching No. 4 Indiana, 85-69. Houston didn’t earn any praise for its 63-52 win over No. 16 Northern Kentucky, though it did inspire more confidence in the Round of 32 when it beat No. 9 Auburn, 81-64.

UM’s 11th-ranked offense was largely contained by the Bulldogs, but it went off against the Hoosiers. Isiah Wong followed up his five-point performance with 27, including four made threes, Jordan Miller added 19 after he was held to seven in the previous game and Norchard Omier, who now has 31 rebounds in the tournament, was again dominant on the glass. Offensively, the Hurricanes have what it takes to stick with the Cougars, though their defense, which ranks outside the top 100, is not on par with that of the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region.

After a discouraging debut against NKU, Houston’s Marcus Sasser fought through injury to deliver 22 points in the win over the Tigers. Tramon Mark stepped up in a big way with 26 points and nine boards in that game and Jarace Walker ‘s 16 points led the team in the Round of 64. The Cougars held both opponents under 40% from the field and allowed a total of 10 made threes across two games, but the 25 fouls they committed against Auburn did lead to 36 free throw attempts, which could hurt them against a better shooting team, such as the ‘Canes.

Houston is trending upward heading into this matchup as it’s on the verge of its third straight appearance in the Elite Eight, at least. But Miami can and should keep this game tight. The Hurricanes are 20–14 against the spread on the year and crucially 7–2 as an underdog. The Cougars are just 18–16 against the number this season, and this is a rather wide spread to cover against a team that can score like UM.

NCAA Tournament Betting Record

First Four: 3–1

Round of 64: 3–3

Overall: 6–4

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