NBA Playoffs Betting Preview: Best Title Odds and First Round Matchups in the Western Conference
The Western Conference team with the best odds to win the title is not the top-seeded Nuggets. Nor is it the Grizzlies, the Kings, or even the defending champion Warriors.
The Suns, the fourth seed in the upcoming playoffs, have the best odds of any team in their conference to win their first-ever NBA championship. Though Phoenix stands atop the field, the West is full of contenders, from Denver down to the Lakers, who qualified for the postseason via the play-in tournament Tuesday.
Before the playoffs commence Saturday afternoon, familiarize yourself with the Western Conference participants and each team’s matchup, odds and key numbers to know.
NBA Western Conference No. 1 Denver Nuggets (53–29)
Record since All-Star break: 12–11
Odds to win conference: +350 (3rd-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +1000 (6th-best)
First-round opponent: Timberwolves/Pelicans/Thunder
With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back at his side, Nikola Jokić led Denver to the best record in the West and the back-to-back MVP nearly averaged a triple double in the process. The Nuggets let their foot off the gas over the final few weeks of the season, though they still fended off the Grizzlies for the No. 1 seed.
Efficiency was the name of the game this year in the Mile High City. Denver finished first in field goal percentage (50.4) and effective field goal percentage, second in assists per game (28.9), third in true shooting percentage, fourth in three-point percentage (37.9) and fifth in offensive rating. At the heart of that was Jokić, whose scoring average dipped a few points while his field goal percentage shot up to 63% and his assist average increased to 9.8.
Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports
After a year off, Murray slowly began to regain his form as time went on and Porter played the most games he ever has in his career. The depth additions the Nuggets made also paid dividends. Bruce Brown had his best season as a pro, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shot a career-best 42.3% from deep and the midseason signing of Reggie Jackson added another veteran to the rotation.
Denver’s 15th-ranked defense is once again a point of concern, but the team’s offensive proficiency allowed it to finish with the second-best point differential (+3.3) in the conference. Home-court advantage is key for the Nuggets, who went 34–7 at Ball Arena and just 19–22 on the road.
NBA Western Conference No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (51–31)
Record since All-Star break: 16–9
Odds to win conference: +700 (T-4th-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +2000 (8th-best)
First-round opponent: Lakers — lost season series, 1–2
The Grizzlies could be a contender hiding in plain sight. But injuries to key frontcourt players and now a difficult Round 1 matchup with the Lakers call into question their ability to make a run this spring.
Memphis finished with the second-best record in the West for the second season in a row. That was despite Ja Morant missing 21 games, Desmond Bane being absent for 24 and Jaren Jackson Jr. missing 19. Those three are all good to go for the postseason, though. The same cannot be said for Steven Adams, who’s been out with a knee injury since January, and Brandon Clarke, who tore his Achilles in March. That puts added pressure in the frontcourt on Jackson, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate who’s dealt with foul trouble throughout his career.
The Grizzlies have the No. 11 offense in the NBA, the No. 3 defense and rank third in net rating. Their 35-6 home record is tops in the league and they’re in a three-way tie for the third-best best mark since the All-Star break. Over the last few years, Memphis has been in a handful of postseason battles and Morant has shown he can take over a series like few players can.
Compromised size and poor outside shooting (35.1%) could keep the Grizzlies from seeing the second round, though they will enter their series against L.A. as slight favorites. Just keep an eye on Shannon Sharpe if he’s sitting court-side.
NBA Western Conference No. 3 Sacramento King (48–34)
Record since All-Star break: 16–9
Odds to win conference: +2100 (7th-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +6600 (11th-best)
First-round opponent: Warriors — lost season series, 1–3
The drought is over. The Kings lit the beam 48 times this season and are in the postseason for the first time since 2006, with home-court advantage to boot. Year 1 under Mike Brown, the betting favorite to win Coach of the Year, was a smashing success.
No team scored more than Sacramento (120.7 points per game), which also finished first in offensive rating. De’Aaron Fox excelled with a reinforced supporting cast around him and a full season with Domantas Sabonis at his side. Kevin Huerter shot 40% from beyond the arc, Malik Monk provided a spark off the bench and No. 4 pick Keegan Murray looked plenty comfortable in the starting lineup, and also lit it up from deep in his rookie campaign.
For as good as the Kings are on offense, they rank 24th on defense. Their opponents shoot 37.3% from outside and they allow 53.5 points in the paint per game, both bottom-five marks. Sacramento’s play style lends itself to shootouts, which has worked out well enough so far, though the game typically slows down in the postseason.
The Kings are the only higher-seeded team in the playoffs not favored to win their first-round series. Beyond geographical proximity, there’s history at play here as Brown came over from Golden State and Harrison Barnes started his career there. Draymond Green also offered up potential bulletin-board material when he said playing Sacramento was his preferred playoff matchup, though he clarified it was for travel reasons.
NBA Western Conference No. 4 Phoenix Suns (45–37)
Record since All-Star break: 13–9
Odds to win conference: +190 (1st)
Odds to win NBA title: +450 (3rd-best)
First-round opponent: Clippers — tied season series, 2–2
Phoenix isn’t an average No. 4 seed. It will enter the postseason with a target on its back as the favorites to win the West for the second year in a row. And while the core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton went to the Finals two years ago and won 64 games last year, the addition of Kevin Durant is what put this team over the top.
When the Suns traded for Durant, their title odds immediately shortened, even though he was injured at the time. When it was all said and done, he only played in eight of 26 games after the trade. But when he did play, Phoenix went undefeated. There may still be somewhat of a figuring out period in the playoffs, but Durant is a uniquely adaptable superstar and he’s fit right in so far.
Even with Booker missing 29 games, Paul out for 23 and Durant only available for a fraction of the season, the underlying numbers for the Suns are encouraging. They rank 14th in offensive rating, seventh in defensive rating and ninth in net. They’re also among the best rebounding teams in the league and a sound three-point shooting team (37.4%).
It’s fair to wonder how Paul, 37, and Durant, 34, will hold up on limited rest as the postseason wears on consdiering both players have had some trouble staying healthy in recent years. But the trade for Durant was an all-in move made with a title in mind after Phoenix fell short in the semifinals last year. Now it’s time to see if he pushes the team to its first title, something only one No. 4 seed has ever accomplished in NBA history.
NBA Western Conference No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers (44–38)
Record since All-Star break: 11–10
Odds to win conference: +1700 (6th-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +2800 (9th-best)
First-round opponent: Suns — tied season series, 2–2
The Clippers are expected to be without Paul George (knee) for the beginning of their playoff series against the Suns. His absence would be a huge blow to an L.A. team that was already without its key players for much of the regular season.
George missed 26 games, Kawhi Leonard was out for 30 and Norman Powell was unavailable for 22. And quite a few rotation players were brought in midseason: Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Mason Plumlee and Bones Hyland all played less than 25 games with the team.
Much of the allure around the Clippers is based on the potential of what a team of knockdown shooters surrounding George and Leonard, two incredible two-way talents, can do. But the reality is much less glamorous. They rank 17th in offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating. And though their offensive rating is top 10 since the All-Star break, their defense is down over that same stretch.
Leonard has a lot on his shoulders for his first playoff action in two years, even more so if his running mate is out. He has played his best basketball in the second half of the season as his minutes have gone up, a good sign ahead of the postseason schedule that doesn’t allow for much rest.
Los Angeles is an underdog against Phoenix, but its 21-20 record on the road sets it apart in the West — only one other team (Sacramento) had a winning record in away games this year.
NBA Western Conference No. 6 Golden State Warriors (44–38)
Record since All-Star break: 15–9
Odds to win conference: +320 (2nd-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +850 (4th-best)
First-round opponent: Kings — won season series, 3–1
Golden State’s title defense was marred by a preseason punch, injuries to its stars and, most recently, Andrew Wiggins’ extended absence for personal reasons. The Dubs ended up narrowly avoiding the play-in tournament. But as the Warriors have shown throughout their dynastic run, when healthy, they are always a tough out. Accordingly, they are favored to win their first-round series against Sacramento despite entering as the lower seed.
With Wiggins set to rejoin the team for the playoffs, the gang's back together for a run at another ring. Klay Thompson largely returned to his pre-injury form, Stephen Curry was his usual self, Draymond Green had his best offensive season in years and was as impactful as ever on defense and Jordan Poole made the leap to a 20 points per game scorer.
Golden State’s season-long metrics don’t stand out. The team ranks 10th in offensive rating, 14th in defensive rating and 11th in net. Since the All-Star break, though, those figures improve to eighth on offense, seventh on defense and second in net. And that’s been without Wiggins, arguably the second-best player on last year’s championship team.
The Warriors are great in all the categories one would expect. They’re first in three-pointers made (16.6), second in three-point percentage (38.5) and first in assists (29.8). And at the Chase Center, they have a good thing going with a 33–8 record. The Dubs do not travel, though. Their 11–30 road record is the worst of any play-in or playoff team.
NBA Western Conference No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (43–39)
Record since All-Star break: 16–7
Odds to win conference: +700 (T-4th-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +1200 (7th-best)
First-round opponent: Grizzlies — won season series, 2–1
The Lakers’ play-in performance did not inspire much confidence in their playoff hopes. And yet, they’re back in the postseason, where LeBron James has had plenty of success throughout his 20-year career. And the betting odds give his team a shot to make some noise despite its low seeding.
Los Angeles’ in-season moves are what salvaged even the possibility of going on a run. The Westbrook deal brought D’Angelo Russell, a 41.4% three-point shooter since the trade, back to the team that drafted him, along with Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt. And earlier in the year, Rob Pelinka acquired Rui Hachimura. The emergence of Austin Reaves as a scorer and playmaker in just his second year was also important, as was the play of Dennis Schroder, also back for his second stint in Hollywood.
Erik Williams/USA TODAY Sports
With James, 38, getting on in years — though his near 30 point per game average doesn’t show it — more responsibility fell on Anthony Davis this season and he had his best campaign since his first with the Lakers. He shot a career-best 56.3% from the field and was a monster on the boards (12.5 per game). When he is at his best, it raises L.A.’s ceiling.
The season-long efficiency numbers don’t paint the Lakers, who began the year 2–10, as a championship contender, per se. They come in at 19th in offensive rating, 12th in defensive rating and 16th in net. Since the All-Star break, though, Los Angeles is tied for the second-best record in the NBA and those rankings are up to 14th, fourth and sixth, respectively.
The Lakers will go as far as their stars will take them. Davis and LeBron, both of whom missed more than 25 games each this season, don’t have great track records of staying on the floor lately. But if they can stay healthy, with a retooled supporting cast around them, L.A. might just have more than a puncher’s chance against Memphis and beyond.
(The No. 8 seed is not included in this article because it has yet to be decided. The winner of Wednesday’s Thunder-Pelicans game will play the Timberwolves on Friday and the winner of that game will play the No. 1 Nuggets.)
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700.
