NBA Playoffs: Best Bets for Celtics-Hawks and Nuggets-Timberwolves

Betting analysis for a pair of Friday night Game 3s, with a pair of road teams favored to take 3-0 series leads.

The Celtics and Nuggets are both in position to take 3–0 series leads over their first-round opponents Friday night on the road.

Boston, the No. 2 seed in the East, is favored to beat the Hawks in Atlanta. And Denver, the No. 1 seed in the West, is also giving points to the Timberwolves in Minnesota. A 3–0 lead has historically been insurmountable in the NBA: Teams that take a three-game lead are 147–0 all-time.

The Hawks and T-Wolves are surely aware of that damning stat as they look to make a stand in front of their respective fans this evening.

© Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Atlanta Hawks
(Boston leads series, 2-0)

Time: 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Celtics -5.5 (-110) | Hawks +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: BOS (-213) | ATL (+175)
Total: Under 228.5 (-110) | Over 228.5 (-110)

Celtics-Hawks Best Bet: Celtics -5.5 (-110)

Boston has won its last seven over Atlanta, four of which have been by 10 or more points. Games 1 and 2 were decided by 13 points apiece and the Celtics covered both as double-digit favorites. They’re still favored even as the series shifts to the Peach State, a position the C’s actually struggled in this season as they finished 16–18 against the spread as a road favorite.

Coach Joe Mazzulla has stuck to a tight rotation so far and Derrick White in particular has been sensational. He’s second on the team in playoff scoring (25 points per game) on 62/50/89 shooting splits. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have both been solid but neither has needed to completely take over a game just yet.

Boston’s defense has effectively neutralized Trae Young, who’s averaging 20 points on poor shooting to go with five turnovers per game. The Celtics have been a menace on defense, holding the Hawks to 40% from the field, 27% from three and swatting nearly 10 shots per game.

Defense traveled on the road in the regular season for Boston. Atlanta was better (24-17) at home than on the road (17-24), and was rarely installed as an underdog in front of its fans with a 3–4 record against the spread in that scenario. The Celtics have been in control of the series and they’re in position to take a commanding 3–0 lead ahead of a potential closeout game Sunday. The defending Eastern Conference champs won’t squander this chance.

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No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
(Denver leads series, 2-0)

Time: 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Nuggets -2.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: DEN (-133) | MIN (+110)
Total: Under 222.5 (-110) | Over 222.5 (-110)

Nuggets-Timberwolves Best Bet: Nuggets Over 112.5 Points (-110)

After a blowout win in Game 1, Denver survived Anthony Edwards’ 41-point onslaught in Game 2 and countered with 40 from Jamal Murray. And now as the series heads to Minneapolis, the Nuggets are still favored, although the Game 3 spread is the closest thus far.

The Timberwolves desperately need more out of Karl-Anthony Towns, who has 21 points on 8-27 shooting in the series. Edwards stepped up in a big way last time out and Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley both shrugged off unimpressive outings in the opener to make larger impacts offensively. At home, Towns’s season-long splits are marginally better than his averages for the year, so he could be in for a bounceback performance.

Denver has been vulnerable on the road this season with just a 19–22 record straight up and a 10–16 mark against the spread as a favorite. That’s why we’re staying away from the Nuggets spread in this contest and instead opting for the over on their team total. Murray got going in the last game, Nikola Jokić flirted with another triple double and the team’s outside shooting numbers (42.6% in the postseason) are especially encouraging.

With Game 1 decided early, Denver finished with just 109 points, below its season average. But when Minnesota put up more of a fight in Game 2, the Nuggets broke 120 points. This was one of the most efficient offenses in basketball all year long and the T-Wolves have yet to show they’re capable of reining it in.

NBA Playoffs Betting Record: 5–3

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