Follow the Money: 2023 NFL Mock Draft Based on Player Odds

Here's how the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft will play out if the oddsmakers at the sportsbooks are right.

O.K., draftniks, time for one last NFL mock draft before they do it for real Thursday night in Kansas City. This one has nothing to do with player evaluations or hunches or anything like that. It’s about just one thing: the odds.

As we’ve mentioned before, draft odds are usually based on reliable information. SI Sportsbook lists the odds for 21 teams on what position their first draft pick will be. They also have odds on who the top 10 picks will be as well as which player will be the first taken at various positions. Let’s say they’re right. For this exercise, we’ll use a straight ranking of the top prospects and assign them to a team based on which position SI Sportsbook says that team will draft.

One thing to consider: No odds are set for the teams with the top five picks: Carolina, Houston, Arizona, Indianapolis and Seattle. Since none of the teams that do have odds posted list a quarterback as the favorite to go first, we’re going to assume the top four quarterbacks go in the top five picks. The fifth open spot will get the highest-ranked player in the rankings.

Got it? Here we go…

• Bet on the 2023 NFL Draft at SI Sportsbook

1

Carolina Panthers (via CHI): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

The former Heisman Trophy winner has been the favorite for a few weeks now to be the first overall pick, and the number is down to a prohibitive -2000. Despite the Will Revis rumors, this one is a fait accompli. 

2

Houston Texans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Despite the rumblings that Houston might not take a quarterback here at all, we’re gonna stick with the pick. As recently as last week, Will Anderson Jr. was favored to be the second overall pick and Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud was right behind him, but Levis’s odds shot up over the weekend. Somebody knows something.

3

Arizona Cardinals: Tyree Wilson, edge, Texas Tech

The Cardinals need a pass rusher, and Wilson has surpassed Anderson as the favorite at SI Sportsbook to be the first defensive player drafted. Wilson is at -120, while Anderson is close behind at -105. 

4

Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports

Lots of mocks have the Colts taking Anthony Richardson here, but most of those mocks had Stroud off the board first. With Stroud still available, that’s who the Colts take.

5

Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Geno Smith is 32, so it makes sense for Seattle to think about a QB of the future. The Seahawks can afford to make this pick because they have another first-round pick at No. 20.

6

Detroit Lions (via LAR): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Cornerback was a position of need for the Lions even before they traded away 2020 first-round corner Jeff Okudah. So it’s no surprise Detroit is heavily favored – at -300 -- to take a corner with their first pick. Not only that, but Witherspoon is the favorite at -125 to be the No. 6 overall pick.

7

Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

If Witherspoon doesn’t go sixth to the Lions, he’s tied for the best odds at +250 to go seventh overall. Another CB, Gonzalez, is the player he’s tied with.

8

Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

This one’s interesting. As of last week, SI Sportsbook had the Falcons favored to take a defensive lineman with their first pick. As of this week, Atlanta’s first pick is off the board. On top of that, Robinson – whose stock has been skyrocketing – is tied for the best odds to be the eighth overall pick at +250. 

9

Chicago Bears: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

The Bears are favored to go offensive line at -188. There are three co-favorites to be the ninth overall pick at +300 and two of them are O-linemen. But here’s the curveball: While Johnson is fourth on the list for ninth overall pick at +350, he’s favored to be the first offensive lineman drafted at -161. So this pick could represent good value. 

10

Philadelphia Eagles (via NO): Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

Everyone knows the Eagles put a premium on offensive linemen, so it’s no surprise SI Sportsbook has them at -143 to use this pick on the front line. Unless the Bears take Skoronski, that’s Philly’s pick.

11

Tennessee Titans: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

The Titans could throw things off here if they trade up for a quarterback, but SI Sportsbook says the first pick will be an offensive lineman, so we’ll continue that run with a third straight big-ugly. Tennessee is listed at -125 to go offensive line, but a close second is defensive line at +150, so it’s entirely likely the Titans take one of two defensive players who were expected to go higher than this: Will Anderson Jr. or Jalen Carter.

12

Houston Texans (via CLE): Will Anderson Jr., edge, Alabama

SI Sportsbook doesn’t have a market for Houston’s first-round picks. But some mocks have the Texans taking Anderson with the second overall pick in the draft – so it’s hard to imagine they’d pass on him if he somehow were still available here.

13

Green Bay Packers (via NYJ): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

The Packers are expected to take a defensive lineman with their top pick, listed at +200 at SI Sportsbook. They may have been leaning pass rusher ahead of tackle, but Carter might be too good to pass up. There was a time Carter was the favorite to be the first overall pick, so getting him at No. 13 is hard to argue.

14

New England Patriots: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Pittsburgh

Best odds for the Patriots’ first pick is a tie between cornerback and offensive lineman at +250. With four of the last five picks being O-linemen, we’ll give New England the best available corner here. Besides, now that the Pats will face Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen twice a year, it couldn’t hurt to bolster the pass defense.

15

New York Jets (via GB): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

With Aaron Rodgers finally in the fold, the Jets are heavily favored to find offensive line help to protect their 39-year-old QB. This will be the Jets’ third first-round OT in the last four years, but it makes sense. Jones has the fourth-best odds (+900) to be the first offensive lineman taken, so he’s the fourth O-lineman off our board.

16

Washington Commanders: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Cornerback is the favored pick for Washington at +100, and Banks is the next CB off the big board.

17

Pittsburgh Steelers: Lukas Van Ness, edge, Iowa

This is the first pick in which we’re going to stray from the top two positions listed at SI Sportsbook. Oddsmakers have the Steelers going cornerback (+100) or offensive line (+170), but too many of the top-tier prospects at those spots have been taken. Rather than reach for one of those, the Steelers are listed at +350 to take a defensive lineman. Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness is slotted to go in this area, and he’d look good lined up opposite T.J. Watt. 

18

Detroit Lions: Nolan Smith, edge, Georgia

The Lions are favored to take a corner with their first pick and we’ve got them doing that at No. 6. Having two first-round picks is a luxury, so Detroit can go in any direction here. And with 2022 first-round receiver Jameson Williams suspended for six games, they could look at some of the talented wideouts on the board. If we stick with the odds, though, defensive line was second for the Lions after cornerback. Pairing Nolan Smith with Aidan Hutchinson gives Detroit impressive bookend pass rushers. 

19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida

The Bucs are favored at +100 to take an offensive lineman with this pick, and it just so happens that the best available lineman won’t have far to travel. Torrence, after three years at Louisiana, transferred to Florida last season. He would fit nicely at left guard next to Tristan Wirfs. 

20

Seattle Seahawks: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

SI Sportsbook doesn’t have odds for Seattle’s first pick, but if they go quarterback at No. 5, which is what we’ve got here, then the Seahawks should draft the best available front seven defensive player here. That’s Murphy.

21

Los Angeles Chargers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

With four or five receivers that are first-round worthy in this draft, it seems crazy that the best one doesn’t hear his name called until 21. But if that’s the case, more power to the Chargers. Keenan Allen, who had trouble staying healthy last season, turns 31 on draft day. Smith-Njigba gives Justin Herbert another much-needed weapon. 

22

Baltimore Ravens: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State

With good receivers still on the board, it would have been a lock for the Ravens to take one… had they not signed Odell Beckham Jr. SI Sportsbook still has Baltimore at +175 to take a receiver, but the odds are -110 they take a cornerback to help their struggling secondary. Brents is the best available.

23

Minnesota Vikings: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennesse

Jeff Blake/USA TODAY Sports

Another wild card here. The two positions that are tied with the best odds to go here are cornerback and receiver (+175). There are players at those positions worth taking, but the Vikings may not be able to pass on Hooker. Quarterback is fourth-most likely to be taken here (+550), and Minnesota has shown a lot of interest in Hooker. Kirk Cousins has one year left on his contract and Hooker needs the year to recover from an ACL tear. 

24

Jacksonville Jaguars: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh

The Jaguars are favored to take a cornerback first (+170), but the best available corners are not first-round caliber. Defensive line is next at +250, and Kancey – though a bit undersized for defensive tackle – has generated a lot of excitement with his quickness and ferocity.  

25

New York Giants: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Two years after drafting Kadarius Toney in the first round, the Giants give it another go. Even if they didn’t trade Toney last season, they would need more help at receiver. Which is why the Giants are +110 to take a pass-catcher with this pick. They’ve got their choice of Addison and Zay Flowers. We’ll go Addison because he’s a couple of inches taller.

26

Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

After losing Dalton Schultz in free agency, this is one of the most no-brainer picks of the draft. And if by chance Mayer is off the board at this pick, then Dallas will replace Dalton with another Dalton – Dalton Kincaid of Utah.

27

Buffalo Bills: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Remember this time last year, when fans were still abuzz over the emergence of Gabe Davis? Well, Davis never did fulfill the potential he showed with that amazing playoff game against the Chiefs. He’s O.K., but the Bills still need a big-time receiver to pair with Stefon Diggs. Receiver is the favorite at +200 to be taken here, and Buffalo would be fortunate to see Flowers still out there.  

28

Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Tight end is one of the few holes on a Super Bowl-contending roster. Thus, the odds are +138 that a tight end goes in this spot. Kincaid is a tight end who can stretch defenses, which would be quite a weapon for Joe Burrow.

29

New Orleans Saints (via SF): Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

SI Sportsbook expects the Saints to take a defensive lineman with this pick (-120). They may be better off with an end to rush the passer, but Bresee is the best available lineman and he can certainly help the New Orleans run defense.

30

Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

After taking an offensive lineman with their first first-round pick, the reigning NFC champs can afford to mix things up here. After offensive line, the oddsmakers like Philly to take a defensive lineman. But they can afford to go best available athlete here, and Gibbs could step in and be the best back in an impressive committee.

31

Kansas City Chiefs: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

SI Sportsbook has the most likely positions here as a tie between offensive and defensive line at +175 each. But receiver is right up there at +200. Johnston could easily get drafted higher than this, and he certainly would be a nice weapon for Patrick Mahomes. 

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