MLB Betting Trends: Welcome Back, Bryce Harper

Plus, banking on Dylan Cease and Blue Jays-Red Sox continue to pound the over.

Before we get into some betting trends, one thing we need to say: Welcome back, Bryce Harper. The Phillies slugger and two-time NL MVP made a surprisingly fast return from Tommy John surgery, making his 2023 debut Tuesday night in Philadelphia’s loss to the Dodgers. Harper went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. Not great, but give it time. Harper is too good to keep down for long. You might want to give it some time before looking at player props, but take advantage if you’re playing DFS: On Fanduel Wednesday, there are 20 outfielders with higher salaries than Harper. You won’t see that value much longer.

Now, onto Wednesday’s action: 

A K prop and a game total look enticing. Here are two MLB trends to target:

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

After a red-hot start to the season, Dylan Cease has cooled off, lasting only four innings in each of his last two starts, and striking out only three batters in his last appearance while allowing six earned runs.

However, we are going to throw those stats out the window. Why? Both starts were vs. a stellar Tampa Bay Rays team, and sometimes a specific opponent just sees you well. On the same note, sometimes a team just doesn’t see you well, and that’s the case for the Minnesota Twins.

This current Twins lineup is hitting only .188 with 38 strikeouts across 117 at-bats vs. Cease. These two matched up on April 10 and Cease struck out six batters. Previous to that start, he struck out 10 Astros and eight Giants.

On the season, Cease’s K rate is 10.98 per nine innings, while the Twins own the league’s fourth-highest K rate at 25.5%. Across the past week, that K rate is even higher, at 27.7%.

Take advantage of the value after Cease’s recent rough starts.

White Sox ML ( -130)

Cease over 7.5 K (-110)

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Games at Fenway Park have averaged 11.22 total runs through the first month of the season. Alek Manoah gets the start Wednesday for the Jays, while Nick Pivetta will be up for the Red Sox. Both pitchers have been uneven to start the year, with Manoah having an xERA of 6.97 and Pivetta having an xERA of 5.90, according to statcast.

This is the third game of a four-game series between the two division rivals. The Red Sox have won the first two, with the game totals reaching 11 and 13, respectively.

The Red Sox are averaging 5.68 runs per game this season. The Jays are averaging 4.77.

The total for today’s game is set at nine.

You know what to do.

Over 9 runs scored (-120)

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