MLB Betting Trends: Go With Justin Verlander in His Mets Debut

The three-time Cy Young winner is making his first start of the season, but he’s got a matchup that could produce a bunch of strikeouts.

Justin Verlander returns to action today for the first time in the 2023 season and the first time in a Mets uniform. The reigning AL Cy Young couldn’t get a better matchup, either: the Detroit Tigers.

Verlander was excellent in his age 39 season with the Astros, winning his third career Cy Young after pitching to a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, winning 18 games for Houston. Even more impressive was that he did this in his first season returning from Tommy John surgery.

The injury that landed the veteran righty on the IL to start the 2023 season was a low grade teres major strain. Verlander’s most recent rehab start lasted 4⅔ innings and he logged six strikeouts while allowing only two hits and one walk.

Rich Storry/USA Today Sports

Verlander able to return successfully from injury? Check.

The Mets are in desperate need of dependable starters, as Max Scherzer looked dicey in his first game back from his suspension. Scherzer surrendered six earned runs to the Tigers Wednesday night and the velocity was down on every single one of his pitches. We won’t be betting on Scherzer until we get to the bottom of the sticky stuff.

Though Verlander is not known for being a high-strikeout pitcher, I would consider the over for his strikeout prop. Verlander is efficient and can easily go six or seven innings even after returning from injury. The Mets will need as much volume as possible from Verlander as the bullpen was heavily taxed in the double-header on Wednesday. Also, the Tigers are striking out at a 26.5% clip this year. That’s the third-highest rate in the MLB.

Detroit’s starter, lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, has been excellent to start the season with a 2.21 ERA. He’s allowed only two earned runs across his last 26⅔ innings pitched. The Mets offense has been sluggish, so they will need Verlander to keep the Tigers off the board. Ultimately, I think the Mets will come through and avoid the sweep, but this will likely be a low-scoring game. There’s not a lot of value on the money line for New York, but I am still avoiding either team on the run line.

I was hoping you could find a strikeout prop for Verlander at 5.5. It’s currently 6,5, but I’ll still take the over on that.

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