MLB Betting Trends: If Patrick Corbin Is Pitching, You Know What to Do

When the Nationals starter is on the mound, run totals are on the rise.

Happy Patrick Corbin Day, bettors!

Games have gone over their listed total in five of six games Nationals pitcher Corbin has started this year.

The funny thing is, Corbin has actually been pretty solid of late after starting the season with an ERA of over eight. He’s only allowed five earned runs in his last 16⅔ innings pitched, but the bullpen and his own team have still helped push run totals over.

Corbin’s ERA for the season is now 5.75, though Statcast says his xERA is 6.92. My guess is we can still expect the lefty to contribute his share to the run total. His expected slugging allowed is in the bottom 8% of the league.

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

On the other side of today’s matchup, Jameson Taillon draws the start for the Cubs. Taillon has been strong for the Cubs this season, with a 4.50 ERA and an xERA of 2.88. On the surface, it doesn’t look like the Nationals will be able to do their part to contribute offensively.

But, here’s the magical thing about Patrick Corbin Day: It doesn’t really matter who is pitching or what teams are playing. Just play the over, and the odds are it will cash.

I could tell you the Cubs are tallying 5.1 runs per game, while the Nationals are averaging 3.70.

I could tell you the Cubs bullpen has an ERA of 4.09 and the Nationals bullpen has an ERA of 4.01.

I could tell you the Cubs have the third-best OPS vs. lefties (.851).

I could tell you games at Nationals Park average 8.18 runs.

But, none of that really matters.

Stack your Cubs in DFS and don’t forget to include Trey Mancini, who is batting .364 career vs. Corbin, and Patrick Wisdom, who’s hard-hit rate is in the 99th percentile of the league.

We’ll be following this trend until further notice.

BET: Over 9 runs

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