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MLB Best Bets: Backing Eduardo Rodriguez and the Underdog Tigers
Let’s back an underdog for today’s matinee MLB bet.
In case you haven't been paying attention to the Tigers (it’s O.K., no one blames you), they are 6-4 in their last 10 games and only 2.5 games behind the first-place Twins in the AL Central.
They are also only half a game behind the Guardians, who they face today at Progressive Field.
One of the most interesting stories for the Tigers this season has been the dominance of Eduardo Rodriguez. The veteran lefty has pitched to a 1.81 ERA so far (fifth-best among qualified starters) and his xERA is only 2.70. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity allowed are in the top 8% of the league. Though he isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, hitters are only batting about .200 vs. his changeup, which he throws 17.7% of the time.
When the Guardians last faced Rodriguez, on April 18, he struck out a season-high 10 batters and allowed no earned runs on four hits across eight innings pitched. That’s dominant. I’ll be taking the plus money for his strikeout prop at 5.5 today.
On the other side of this matchup, the Guardians will start Peyton Battenfield. Across four games started this season, Battenfield has an ERA of 4.02 with an xERA of 6.32. His hard-hit rate is in the bottom 7% of the league and his average exit velocity is in the bottom 1% of the league. In other words, even the Tigers, who are averaging only 3.63 runs per game, should be able to have success.
For their part, the Guardians are averaging even fewer runs than the Tigers this season -- a mere 3.50 per game. The only team averaging fewer is the Marlins.
The Guardians do have the better bullpen, but Rodriguez is the far superior starting pitcher.
It’s not often I’ll support backing the Tigers, but at +110 today, I’m on board.
Bet:
Tigers ML +110
Eduardo Rodriguez over 5.5 K +100
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Jennifer Piacenti is a fantasy sports and betting analyst for Sports Illustrated. She serves as a host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio and has her own podcast, “Waiver Wired,” on the Extra Points podcast network. Piacenti is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye” and is a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts. She is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and is a 2020 Scott Fish Bowl finalist.