AFC West Title Odds: Super Bowl Champion Chiefs Poised to Win Eighth Straight Division Title

Kansas City is the odds-on favorite to win the AFC West yet again.

The last time a team other than the Chiefs won the AFC West was the Broncos in 2015. Since then, Andy Reid has led Kansas City to seven straight division titles, the last five of which have come with Patrick Mahomes under center.

That duo has made life difficult on the Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders, who must jockey for wild card position in a loaded conference with two games per year against the NFL’s top quarterback.

There’s been some shakeup in the AFC West this offseason. Los Angeles made a change at offensive coordinator, Denver has a new head coach and Las Vegas a new quarterback. Not everything is static with the Chiefs either, but as long as they have Mahomes, they’re the team to beat in the division.

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Kansas City Chiefs Odds to Win AFC West: -160

2022 was supposed to be the year another team challenged the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC West. Instead, they tied for the most wins in the NFL and won their second Super Bowl in four years. That’s life with Mahomes at quarterback. The defending champions had some roster turnover — receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, tackle Orlando Brown Jr., and safety Juan Thornhill all signed elsewhere. Kansas City responded by adding linebacker Drue Tranquill, tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, and drafting edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah and receiver Rashee Rice. The group of skill position players around Mahomes (running back Isiah Pacheco, receivers Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore) is rather young, but veteran tight end Travis Kelce remains his most reliable target. It’s difficult to see a scenario where the Chiefs don’t make it eight straight division titles.

Chiefs 2022 Record: 14-3

Chiefs 2023 Projected Win Total: 11.5

Chiefs Home Opponents: Bills, Bengals, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, Broncos, Raiders, Chargers

Chiefs  Away Opponents: Packers, Jaguars, Patriots, Jets, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers Odds to Win AFC West: +300

The Chargers ended their three-year playoff drought last season and then promptly choked in the wild-card round. The response was to replace offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore, who last called plays for the Cowboys. The offense took a step back last season, in part due to injuries to receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and the front office added another pass-catcher in the draft in Quentin Johnston. For now, dynamic running back Austin Ekeler remains on the roster despite his trade request. Los Angeles’ defense has been an issue in recent years and it lost its leading tackler, Tranquill, to a division rival in free agency. A healthy Joey Bosa should help the situation on that side of the ball, along with the addition of linebacker Eric Kendricks. The Chargers are still second fiddle to the Chiefs but perhaps Moore can further unlock quarterback Justin Herbert and raise the team’s ceiling in the process.

Chargers 2022 Record: 10–7

Chargers 2023 Projected Win Total: 9.5

Chargers Home Opponents: Bills, Dolphins, Bears, Lions, Ravens, Cowboys, Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders

Chargers Away Opponents: Patriots, Jets, Packers, Vikings, Titans, Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders

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Denver Broncos Odds to Win AFC West: +550

The Broncos brought coach Sean Payton out of retirement to clean up the mess of a disastrous season. Denver finished dead last in scoring in 2022 after shelling out to acquire quarterback Russell Wilson. Coach Nathaniel Hackett was fired midseason and defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero left — there’s been a lot of turnover in the Mile High City lately, from ownership on down. The front office inked tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers to deals to address its offensive line woes, added running back Samaje Perine to back up Javonte Williams and signed defensive end Zach Allen. With the selection of Marvin Mims and the pending return of Tim Patrick, this is a rather crowded receiver room, but there are certainly pieces in place for the offense to take appreciable steps forward. After last year, the only way to go is up.

Broncos 2022 Record: 5–12

Broncos 2023 Projected Win Total: 8.5

Broncos Home Opponents: Packers, Vikings, Patriots, Jets, Browns, Commanders, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders

Broncos Away Opponents: Bears, Lions, Bills, Dolphins, Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders Odds to Win AFC West: +1200

The Raiders moved on from longtime quarterback Derek Carr this offseason and brought in Jimmy Garoppolo to take his place. The new signal-caller has a great group of skill position players around him after running back Josh Jacobs was retained on the franchise tag, receiver Jakobi Meyers signed with the team and tight end Michael Mayer was selected in the second round following the Darren Waller trade. The front office drafted a potentially foundational defensive piece in edge rusher Tyree Wilson via to a unit that’s in dire straits, especially after the departures of linebacker Denzel Perryman and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin. The reunion of Josh McDaniels and Garoppolo could bear fruit on offense, but the defense and level of competition Las Vegas is up against in the division and conference at large is worrisome.

Raiders 2022 Record: 6–10

Raiders 2023 Projected Win Total: 7.5

Raiders Home Opponents: Jets, Packers, Patriots, Vikings, Steelers, Giants, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers

Raiders Away Opponents: Bears, Bills, Dolphins, Lions, Colts, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers

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