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MLB Best Bet: Two Picks for Mariners vs. Red Sox on Wednesday Night
The best part about taking an over bet is the possibility that it will cash early. We've been lucky enough to celebrate early with our last few over bets, including Tuesday night's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Athletics. It took 12 innings for Oakland to finally pull off the win, but we knew our ticket had cashed in the bottom of the seventh.
We will go with the over again tonight, but this time at Fenway, where games are averaging 11.36 runs this season -- the most of any home stadium in the MLB.
The Mariners will be in town, and Marco Gonzales gets the start. Gonzales is not a high strikeout pitcher, and his ERA is 4.42. The Red Sox, averaging 5.49 runs per game this season (third in the league), should be able to score a few runs off Seattle's lefty starter.
Boston will start right hander Brayan Bello. Bello allows a ton of hard contact. His hard-hit rate is in the bottom 3% of the league. Though the Mariners have struggled at times offensively this season, they have improved lately, averaging 4.92 runs per game in May. Jarred Kelenic specifically has been on fire lately, and he should continue his hot-hitting streak tonight.
Seattle's bullpen has been among the best in the league in May, with an ERA of 2.06. Boston's bullpen, however, has struggled. Red Sox relievers have a 5.23 ERA for May (fifth-worst).
Here are a few more trends to consider:
- The total has gone over in each of Seattle's last five games when playing on the road against Boston.
- The total has gone over in 19 of Boston's last 22 games when playing Seattle.
In addition to the over at 9.5 runs, there's also value on the moneyline for Seattle at +105. Seattle is 11-9 on the road this season and 6-4 in their last 10. They will be looking to bounce back after a loss last night.
The Bet: Over 9.5 | Mariners ML +105
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Jennifer Piacenti is a fantasy sports and betting analyst for Sports Illustrated. She serves as a host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio and has her own podcast, “Waiver Wired,” on the Extra Points podcast network. Piacenti is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye” and is a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts. She is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and is a 2020 Scott Fish Bowl finalist.