MLB Best Bets: Pair of Plus-Money Plays in Dodgers-Braves Matchup

In a potential NLCS preview, the run total is definitely within reach as one L.A. slugger looks to stay hot.

Two of the hottest hitting teams in baseball matchup tonight, and we can get plus money for the run total to go over, so that’s exactly what we are doing.

The Dodgers will face off with the Braves in what could already be viewed as a potential NLCS preview. Both teams comfortably lead their divisions and they have the two best records in the National League. The Dodgers are 29-19 this season with a run differential of plus-48 while Atlanta is 29-17 with a run differential of plus-63.

Charlie Morton gets the start at home Monday night for the Braves. Morton has pitched to a 2.85 ERA so far this season, but he could be due for some regression with an xERA of 4.39. In his career vs. this Dodgers lineup, Morton has not been sharp, allowing a .301 batting average and 12 extra-base hits across 136 at-bats. 

AP Photo/Butch Dill

Mookie Betts, David Peralta and Freddie Freeman have all had success vs. Morton, but tonight we are really looking at Freeman to do the damage. Not only is Freeman hitting .533 with an OPS of 1.600 and two home runs across 15 career at-bats vs. Morton, he has been red-hot lately with four home runs and 19 RBIs in just the first three weeks of May. Morton’s has allowed only four home runs so far this season, and three of them have been to lefties. Make sure to get Freeman into your DFS lineups today, and I’m also looking at a total bases prop for him. Over 1.5 total bases pays +115 tonight.

On the other side of this matchup, Dodgers rookie Gavin Stone gets the start. This is a tough draw for the young pitcher who allowed four earned runs across only four innings in his first MLB start last week vs. the Phillies. The Braves, who are averaging 5.37 runs per game for the month of May, should be able to get to him and the Dodgers bullpen will likely get the call early. Dodgers relief pitchers have an ERA of 6.99 in the last seven days and an ERA of 4.63 for the month of May.

Dodgers games have gone over the run total 55.3% of the time this year (26-21-1). They have gone over 65.2% of the time as the away team (15-8-1).

Braves games have gone over 60% of the time this season (27-18-1) and they have gone over 68.2% of the time as the home team (15-7-1).

Games at Truist Park are averaging 9.36 runs this year, but today it will reach double digits.

The Bets: Over 9.5 runs (+100) | Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+115)

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