MLB Best Bet: It’s Patrick Corbin Day, but This One Is Different

While he might not shut down the Astros, the Nationals pitcher should be able to hit his K prop Tuesday night.

Patrick Corbin pitches for the Nationals tonight in Houston, and instead of our usual over play, we are going to try something different: a K prop.

Tonight, we are betting that Corbin will go over 3.5 strikeouts.

Now, that is not to say he won’t give up plenty of hits, too. In his last outing Corbin allowed 11 hits while still somehow limiting the Blue Jays to only three earned runs, and striking out four. I expect the Astros will get in their knocks, but without Yordan Alvarez, the lineup looks a little less dangerous. On the season, the Astros’ 21.7% Krate is the seventh best in MLB, but across the past two weeks that number has been higher -- 23%, which ranks 16th. Jose Abreu is still striking out at an absurd rate, Martin Maldonado is an auto strikeout, and Jose Altuve is cold vs. Corbin in his career, hitting on .167 across 12 at-bats.

Corbin has struck out four or more in two of his last three starts. Perhaps more importantly, Corbin has gone 6-plus innings in 10 of 13 games pitched this season.

Corbin should last just long enough to notch four Ks tonight.

The Bet: Patrick Corbin over 3.5 Ks (-105) 

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