MLB Best Bets: A Pair of Plus-Money Strikeout Props
It’s the weekend, and we are feeling frisky! Let’s have some fun with some plus-money strikeout props for this weekend. The two pitchers below both have upside based on their matchups, and should also be considered as value plays for your DFS lineups.
Let’s take a shot at a nice payout!
Rich Hill over 6.5 K (+120)
No team strikes out more than the Brewers when facing left-handed pitching, and that’s why we are going to target a plus-money prop tonight for veteran Rich Hill.
Hill has only been striking batters out at a rate of 8.39 per nine innings this season, but he has gone 6-plus innings in his last three starts. In his last two, he made it through seven. Seven innings should be enough to clear 6.5 K vs. a Brewers team that is striking out at a 28.5% clip vs. southpaws.
Hill has cleared this total in five of 13 starts this season, but those games were vs. Detroit, Cincinnati, Colorado and Texas -- all teams that strikeout less frequently vs. lefties than the Brewers.
Bryan Woo over 5.5 K (+120)
The easy play in this game is on the other side with Michael Kopech, but there’s not value in his K prop, which is listed at -155 for the over on 6.5 K. So instead, we are pivoting to Seattle’s rookie, who is has struck out batters at a rate of nearly 15 batters per nine across his two appearances this year. The trick here is simply whether or not Woo will stay in the game long enough to make it to six, as his ERA is over 10 across his two starts this season. To be fair, though, the six earned runs in his first start was vs. the hot-hitting Rangers, and he allowed only two runs across 4⅔ to the Angels last week while striking out seven. Both of those teams have a much bigger offense than the White Sox, who have mustered a mere 3.42 runs per game in the month of June. Woo should go longer into this one, and six strikeouts is viable vs. a White Sox club that has the seventh-highest K rate (25.6%) during June.
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