MLB Best Bets: In a Matchup of Surprising Standouts, Reds Keep Rolling

Here’s why we also like Cincinnati-Baltimore to hit the over.

Two of the most exciting – and surprising – MLB teams face off Monday night, and you guessed it: We are ready to bet on it.

If you follow this MLB betting series, you won’t be surprised to learn that one of the two teams is the Reds. Cincinnati has been one of our favorite -- and most profitable -- teams to bet on this season, and it’s hard to go away from them tonight. The other team is the frisky Orioles. Baltimore owns the third-best record in all of MLB -- behind only the Rays and the Braves. If you saw that one coming at the beginning of the season, kudos to you.

One of the things these two teams have in common is they tend to go over their run totals. The total for this game is set up at 9.5, but I still believe it will go over again today. The Reds are averaging 5.61 runs per game in June (third-most), while the Orioles are averaging 4.45. For the season, Reds games have gone over 57.7% of the time (fifth), while Orioles games have gone over 53.5% of the time eighth).

But there’s even more reason to look at the over today. Lefty Cole Irvin gets the start for Baltimore at home. Irvin’s ERA is 7.71 this season, but Statcast says his xERA is considerably higher -- 8.99 -- and that could spell trouble vs. a Reds team that has won 12 of its last 14 games. His xERA, xSLG and barrel rate are all in the bottom 2% of the league. I wouldn’t put it past phenom Elly De La Cruz to hit for another cycle. The Reds have the sixth-best batting average (.267) and the 11th-best OPS (.760) vs. left-handed pitching.

Rookie Brandon Williamson gets the start for the Reds. Also a lefty, Williamson has similar metrics to Irvin with an xBA, xSLG and barrel rate, all in the bottom 7% of the league. The Orioles are batting .257 with an OPS of .759 (12th) vs. southpaws.

The Baltimore bullpen has been struggling of late, which has me leaning toward the Reds at plus money. Can the Reds win their 13th in the last 15? Why not give it one more try?

Get Ryan Mountcastle and Spencer Steer in your DFS lineups and fade both starting pitchers. We are betting on the over.

The Bets: Over 9.5 runs (-125)  | Reds ML (+110)

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