MLB Best Bet: Wash, Rinse, Repeat on Astros-Cardinals Over

Wednesday night’s over cashed after four innings and there’s no reason to think it won’t happen again.

It was a fun night for us MLB fans at SI Betting! Not only did our over bet cash in the fourth inning of the Astros-Cardinals game, we got to see the first perfect game since 2012 courtesy of Domingo German, who dazzled vs. the A’s at the Oakland Coliseum.

It was the 24th perfect game in MLB history and the fourth in franchise history for the Yankees.

The Yankees offense erupted for an 11-0 win and even Giancarlo Stanton looked alive with two hits, including a home run, and three RBIs.

And If you saw that one coming... please share your crystal ball.

In the spirit of sleeping offenses erupting, we are going to repeat our over play in the Astros-Cardinals game Thursday night.

Games at Busch Stadium are now averaging 10.58 runs per game after last night’s 10-7 victory for the Astros in St. Louis. Tonight’s line is set at 9.5 -- a run higher than last night -- but we are still rolling with the over.

Here’s why:

There used to be few things more reliable than Adam Wainwright pitching at home, but things have changed dramatically in 2023. Not only is Wainwright’s ERA all the way up at 6.52 with an xERA even higher at 6.88, his home ERA is 7.03. According to Statcast, his xBA is in the bottom 1% of the league, his xSLG is in the bottom 2%, and his barrel rate is in the bottom 15%. Not only that, but he quite simply isn’t striking batters out anymore. Wainwright’s 4.63 Ks per nine is not only a career-low, it’s in the bottom 1% of MLB. Last night, we saw Jose Altuve tee off in his return while Jose Abreu also had multiple hits and a home run. Kyle Tucker was also productive, and this could be dangerous for the Cardinals tonight as Wainwright’s 40.3% fly ball rate this season is the highest of his career.

On the other side of this one is J.P. France for the Astros. Houston owes France a solid, after he has given them four quality starts in June with little to no run support. We think they will tonight, but we also think the Cardinals will get a few knocks in as well. France’s 3.58 ERA is well below his 4.38 xERA and the Cardinals have scored an average of 5.21 runs per game at home this season.

Both bullpens have been vulnerable of late, and everything about this matchup -- including the ballpark -- favors the hitters.

The Bet: Astros-Cardinals Over 9.5 

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