MLB Best Bet: Reasons to Like the Over in Blue Jays-White Sox

Returning to an early-season habit of expecting Jose Berrios to give up runs.

It’s been a while since we targeted an over play in a game featuring Jose Berrios, but Wednesday night feels like the right time to go back to it.

The Blue Jays are 2.5 games out of the Wild Card and 10.5 games out of first place in the tough AL East, but a matchup vs. Lance Lynn could be just what the doctor ordered.

The White Sox host this one behind veteran Lynn, who has been less than spectacular this season, to say the least. Lynn owns a 6.47 ERA this year, and he hasn’t allowed fewer than three earned runs in a start since May 26. He allowed 20 earned runs and seven home runs across his five starts in June. Hitters are batting .284 vs. his four-seamer, .256 vs his cutter, .246 vs. his sinker and an incredible .526 vs. his changeup. This Toronto lineup should be able to take advantage vs. Lynn, whose home/road splits are also favorable for the Jays: Lance has a 7.33 ERA at home this season. Though Toronto has been sluggish lately, this is exactly the kind of matchup that should wake them up. The Jays have a .756 OPS (seventh), .427 SLG (eighth), and .262 BA (fifth) vs. right-handed pitching this season. After Lynn leaves the game, the White Sox bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA in MLB this season will take over.

On the other side, Berrios gets the start for the Jays. Berrios looked like he was back on track for the first half of June, but the second half was not sharp. The righty has allowed 12 runs across his last three starts (14 innings pitched), and his 3.74 ERA this season should be closer to an xERA of 4.73, according to Statcast. Chicago has averaged nearly five runs per game across the past two weeks of play and they should be able to put some runs on the board at home tonight. Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Andrew Benintendi all have good career numbers vs. Berrios and could be considered as value plays for your DFS lineups.

A warm summer night should help us with the over. With the line set at 9 for even money, we’re in.

The Bet: Over 9 runs (+100)

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