MLB Best Bet: Take Marlins on the Road vs. Orioles

In a matchup between two of the most surprising teams of the first half, Miami gets a boost with the reigning NL Cy Young, Sandy Alcantara, on the mound.

Congrats to the National League for winning the All-Star Game, and congrats to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is the 2023 Home Run Derby Champ. We had action on Vlad, and so no one was more thrilled than SI Betting to see Guerrero and his dad become the first father/son duo to be Derby champs.

Now, it’s time to place our bets for the second half of the season. The trade deadline is just over two weeks away, and there will be a lot of moving pieces in the coming days.

For Friday night, we are looking at the Marlins-Orioles matchup and making a value play on the moneyline.

The Orioles (54-35) host tonight, and they have been one of the best teams in baseball this season. Dean Kremer gets the nod for Baltimore. Kremer has an ERA of 4.78 this season, and his xERA is 5.64 according to Statcast. Kremer has a six-pitch mix, however none of his six pitches have been good weapons: Hitters are averaging .250 or better on all six, including .360 vs. his curveball and .304 vs. his changeup. He uses those two pitches a combined 22% of the time. His max exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 1% of the league, and this Marlins team that is averaging 4.92 runs per game since June 1 (seventh in MLB) should be able to get to him. Kremer’s home ERA (5.51) as compared to his road ERA (4.04) also suggests the Marlins could have an advantage.

On the other side for Miami (53-39) is the reigning NL Cy Young, Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara is far from the career year he had last season, with a 4.72 ERA this season. However, unlike Kremer, Alcantara’s underlying metrics are a little more encouraging. Statcast says his xERA is closer to 4.35, and his fastball velocity is still in the 95th percentile of the league while his chase rate is in the 92nd percentile. The Orioles are averaging 4.88 runs per game since June 1 (eighth in MLB), and will likely be able to put up runs at home.

The bullpens in this game have a nearly identical ERA since June 1: Miami’s is 4.16 while Baltimore’s is 4.19.

In other words: these teams are closely matched. Baltimore gets the slight nod because they are at home, but the Orioles have scored an average of only 4.34 runs per game this year at home as opposed to 5.58 per game while on the road. I’ll avoid the juice, and take the underdogs for plus money.

The Bet: Marlins ML +100

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