MLB Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Will Help Yankees-Angels Go Over

Pitching matchup makes this look like a high-scoring game.

Let’s start the week with an over play tonight!

The Yankees head to Angel Stadium tonight, and the game total is set at eight runs.

I’ve got a lot of reasons to like the over even though both offenses are missing key players, so let’s start with reason number one: Luis Severino.

Since returning from the IL, Severino has not looked sharp. Across 42 innings pitched this season, he has an ERA of 7.35, and Statcast says his xERA is 7.01. Across his two starts in July, Severino has an ERA of 18.90. No, that’s not a typo. He has allowed 14 earned runs across 6⅔ innings pitched in July. Even without Mike Trout, this Angels team should be able to get on the board vs. the righty that is allowing more than four walks and 2.3 home runs per nine innings this season...

Which brings me to reason number two: Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani leads all of MLB with 34 home runs and is well on his way to another AL MVP award -- unless he gets traded to the National League, but that’s another article.

The Angels are averaging 4.96 runs per game this season (seventh), and since losing Trout, that number hasn’t really changed.

Reason number three is the Angels’ pitching. Griffin Canning will start for the Angels, and after a strong June, he has come back to earth in July, allowing four earned runs across only 2⅔ innings in his most recent start. Canning has some swing-and-miss stuff, but he also allows a ton of hard contact: his hard contact and average exit velocity allowed are both in the bottom 9% of the league. Even a Yankees lineup that has averaged fewer than four runs per game since the All-Star break should be able to get in a few knocks. The bullpen in Anaheim has been among the worst in MLB this season, with a 4.20 ERA (21st).

Finally, games at Angel Stadium of Anaheim are averaging 9.58 runs this season. Look for that trend to continue tonight.

The Bet: NYY-LAA Over 8 runs (-110)

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