MLB Best Bet: Orioles Look Good As Home Dogs

Baltimore has won eight of last 10 and should bounce back nicely vs. Dodgers.

For Wednesday's MLB bet, we are taking the home dogs at Camden Yards.

The Dodgers are in town, and they are favored over the Orioles with Julio Urias getting the start, but there are plenty of reasons to think the O’s can pull off the win at home.

Urias is the superior starting pitcher in this matchup, however the lefty has not been as sharp this season as in the past. More specifically, he has not been as sharp in July. Across three starts this month, Urias has an ERA of 4.20. Most of that is due to one bad showing vs. the lowly Royals in which he allowed five earned runs across only three innings of work. He has pitched better since then, but Urias has scary home/road splits, if you’re a Dodgers fan. Though Urias has been excellent at home, pitching to a 2.15 ERA at Chavez Ravine, his road ERA is a bloated 6.89. That certainly gives some hope to the underdogs, who are scoring an average of 5.08 runs in games started by lefties and are averaging 5.43 runs per game in July.

Dean Kremer gets the start for the Orioles, and though his season ERA is 4.59 and his underlying metrics are somewhat concerning, he has been excellent so far in July, pitching to a 1.38 ERA in his two starts this month. The Dodgers have been good in July, scoring an average of 5.92 runs per game, so this certainly isn’t a slam dunk, but that’s why we are getting the value.

The Orioles have a .592 win percentage at home.

The Dodgers have a .531 percentage on the road.

These teams look like they are pretty evenly matched, but there are enough reasons to grab the value for the home team. The Orioles are currently only one game back in the AL East and they have won eight of their last 10 games. After a tough loss last night, they will be extra motivated to win this one. 

The Bet: Orioles ML (+120)

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