MLB Best Bet: This Pitching Matchup Is Too Good to Ignore

Padres-Blue Jays looks to be a low-scoring game Thursday.

Games at the Rogers Centre in Toronto are averaging 8.11 runs this season, and that’s one of a few reasons we are targeting the under for Thursday’s Padres-Blue Jays matchup, despite the fact that both teams have been hot offensively in July.

Blake Snell gets the start for the Padres, and he has quite simply been unhittable. The last time Snell surrendered a run was June 11. He’s had six starts since then allowing only 19 hits through 34 innings pitched while allowing no runs to score. That’s bonkers. His ERA for the season is a stellar 2.71. Add to that the fact that the Blue Jays have an OPS of .708 vs. lefties (20th) and have a league-worst ISO of only .117, and it could be tough for the Jays to put a lot of runs on the board vs. the San Diego starter tonight; however, the Padres bullpen has struggled in July with an ERA of 6.28, so the Jays will likely be able to put up a few in the later innings.

Chris Bassitt gets the start for the Jays, and though his ERA (4.12) and underlying metrics suggest he should be hittable for the Padres, Bassitt has impressive home/road splits. When pitching at the Rogers Centre this season, Bassitt has a 2.47 ERA and a 5-1 record. The Padres are averaging 4.34 runs per game when facing right-handed starters this season, so Bassitt should be able to keep the Jays in the game. The Blue Jays bullpen owns the second-best ERA in July (2.84), and also should be able to keep runs off the board.

These teams are both hitting well right now, but we’ll bet on the pitching in this game to keep the run total under nine. It went under last night, and we expect a repeat.

The Bet: Padres-Blue Jays Under 9 (-110)

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