MLB Bet Bets: There Will Be Runs in Reds-Dodgers Game

Expect Elly De La Cruz and Freddie Freeman to put on a show.

Let’s head into the weekend with another over bet!

The Reds head to Dodger Stadium Friday night and we are betting on plenty of offense at Chavez Ravine.

Bobby Miller gets the start at home for the Dodgers. Miller has pitched well for Los Angeles this year but has allowed eight earned runs across 16 innings pitched in July. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity allowed are in the bottom half of the league, and that suggests hitters like Elly De La Cruz could have some success. We’ve certainly seen Cincinnati put on an offensive show before. Miller’s home ERA is 5.93, despite his overall ERA sitting at only 4.28.

Brandon Williamson gets the start for the Reds, and we’re predicting the Dodgers will have no trouble putting up runs on the young lefty. Not only are the Dodgers scoring a league-leading 6.25 runs per game in July, they have a .219 ISO (second) and a .447 SLG (fifth) vs. southpaws this season. Williamson’s xSLG is in the bottom 8% of the league and his 4.40 ERA should be closer to 5.57, according to his xERA at Statcast.

Look for Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Mookie Betts to have good nights at the plate. All three hit lefties well. I’ll take a total bases prop for Freeman, who has hit 11 of his 21 home runs this year off left-handed pitchers. He also has seven home runs in July (tied for third in MLB).

Games in Dodger Stadium are averaging 9.71 runs per game this season, and we’ll bet this one gets to at least 10. We hit our over bet on Tuesday very early in the game; hopefully, we can do it again tonight.

The Bets: Reds-Dodgers over 9.5 runs (-105) | Freddie Freeman over 1.5 bases (+100)

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