MLB Best Bet: Here’s Why Astros-Yankees Will Hit the Over

Expect some Friday night fireworks at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees host the Astros Friday night for the second of a four-game series in the Bronx. Over the past few seasons, this rivalry has become one of the most competitive in the league. With both teams needing a win tonight, we should have another great baseball game.

Houston won nine of the 11 matchups in 2022 (including postseason). The Yankees won the first game of this series last night.

Tonight, we aren’t going to pick a winner. Instead, we are going to pivot to an over play. The run total is set at nine, and there’s reason to think the bats will be out at Yankee Stadium.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Yankees. Severino has struggled this season with an ERA of 7.49. HIs hard-hit rate allowed is in the bottom sixth percentile of the league, and he’s allowing 2.34 home runs per nine innings this year- that’s the most among pitchers with at least 10 starts this season. Not only that, but he is allowing 3.75 walks per nine while striking out a career-low 7.8 per nine. The Astros, who have been averaging more than five runs per game since July 1, should be able to pounce on the struggling starter.

Rookie Hunter Brown starts for Houston tonight, Brown is allowing plenty of hard contact, and his ERA in July was 5.92. Brown has more swing-and-miss ability, striking out more than 10 batters per nine this season, but he also has some control issues, walking 2.99 hitters per nine. If Giancarlo Stanton stays hot, it could add up to some runs for the Yankees.

Games in Yankees Stadium are averaging only 8.23 runs this season, but this is the first series between these two rivals this year. Expect some fireworks on a warm August night in New York. 

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