MLB Best Bets: Dodgers Roll With Freddie Freeman

The All-Star first baseman has been devastating vs. lefties this season and he gets another one Friday night.

Let’s head into the weekend with a couple of fun MLB bets!

The Rockies head west to face the Dodgers Friday night at Chavez Ravine. It feels like a good time to play the over on the run total, because -- as we have mentioned before -- the Dodgers dominate left-handed pitching and games at Dodger Stadium are averaging 9.64 runs this season. Let’s get into some more detail.

Lance Lynn gets the start at home tonight for the Dodgers. Lynn has been strong in his two starts since joining the Dodgers, allowing only four earned runs across 13 innings pitched. However, his hard-hit rate is in the bottom 37th percentile of the league and his barrel rate is in the bottom eighth. His ERA for the season is 6.11. No, the Rockies are not an offensive juggernaut, but don’t count them out. They have averaged 3.67 runs per game this season, and they should be able to put up three tonight.

On the other side of this one is Austin Gomber. Gomber, a lefty, has an ERA of 5.40 this season, and though he has also been very good since the All-Star Game, his opponents included the Nationals and the Cardinals -- two struggling offenses that don’t appear to be in the playoff hunt. Facing this Dodgers lineup is a very different beast. Los Angeles has as .800 OPS (third), .464 SLG (third), and .225 ISO (second) vs. southpaws this season. They’ve also been averaging 6.8 runs per game since August 1. Mookie Betts has hit .341 with four homers in August while Freddie Freeman has eight doubles, two home runs and an incredible .512 batting average this month.

We are also going to take a Freeman total bases prop for tonight, and not just because he’s hot -- because he specifically destroys left-handed pitching. Freeman leads the league with 12 home runs and 27 extra-base hits vs. lefties, with an incredible 1.137 OPS (third), .716 SLG (second), .355 batting average (fifth).

We can get even money for Freeman to have over 1.5 bases, and that feels like free money. I’d also consider props for hits (+190 for over 1.5 hits) and RBIs (+150 for over .5) for Freeman as well.

Throw in the fact that the Rockies bullpen has an ERA of 6.00 for August, and we’ll take the value for the over play tonight, and bet on Freeman to do a lot of the damage tonight.

The Bets:
Rockies-Dodgers Over 9 (-105)
Freddie Freeman over 1.5 bases (+100)
Freeman over .5 RBI (+150)

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