MLB Best Bet: Bank on Max Scherzer and the Rangers

Expect Texas to stay hot Monday night vs. the Angels.

We are backing the Rangers Monday night on the run line vs. the Angels. These two AL West teams are trending in opposite directions despite both pushing their chips in at the trade deadline, and we have an opportunity to capitalize.

The Rangers’ arrow is pointing upward as Texas has won eight of their last 10, and have a 2.5-game lead over the Astros in the AL West.

The Angels, by contrast, have won only three of their last 10, and are 11.5 games behind the Rangers.

For the month of August, the Rangers have scored 5.25 runs per game, while the Angels have mustered only 3.5.

Here are some more interesting stats: The Rangers have the best record against the spread when at home this season, covering the spread 63.3% of the time (38-22). Across all games played, the Rangers have covered the spread 59.3% of the time (70-48), which ranks third in MLB.

The Rangers will want to make sure they maintain their distance and don’t lose any ground on the Astros tonight, and with Los Angeles starting lefty Patrick Sandoval, they should be able to get the job done. Sandoval has been good for Los Angeles this season with a 3.86 ERA; however, the Rangers are especially dominant vs. left-handed pitching. Their .825 OPS, .470 SLG, and .355 OBP and 173 RBIs all rank second in MLB, while their .186 ISO is tied for sixth. Even if Sandoval is able to keep the Rangers at bay, the bullpen is unlikely to hold up, as they have a disastrous 6.11 ERA for the month of August.

Meanwhile, Max Scherzer gets the start at home for Texas and he has been strong since joining the club, allowing only four earned runs across 13 innings pitched for Texas. Since the All-Star break, Scherzer has looked more like himself, with an ERA of 2.70. This scuffling Angels offense is unlikely to put a lot of runs on the board vs. Mad Max, and the Rangers bullpen has also settled down of late, boasting the third-best ERA (1.72) for the month of August.

Put all these things together, and we will grab the value for a plus-money payout for Texas to cover the run line at home tonight.

The Bet: Rangers -1.5 (+115)

---

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700. The Arena Media Brands, LLC and its partners may receive compensation for links to products and services on this website.