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MLB Best Bets: Let’s Bank on a Two-Game Parlay
For today’s MLB bet we are going to try a two-game parlay to get us to plus money. I like both of these plays on their own, but they pay much better when played together (+115).
Phillies ML (-188)
Michael Lorenzen has allowed only two runs across 17 innings pitched since joining the rotation in Philadelphia, and in his last outing he faced this same Nationals team and delivered a complete game no-hitter. His post All-Star break ERA is a mere 1.45, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be sharp again tonight.
Not only do the Phillies have a pitching advantage, they have been smashing the ball in August, averaging 5.73 runs per game this month -- which is tied for fourth with the also hot-hitting Astros.
The Nationals have also been hitting well of late (5.07 runs per game in August), but they will send Joan Adon to the mound, and it will be only his third start of the season. Adon has an ERA of 5.14 this season, and it may not be long before the Nationals go to their bullpen -- which has been among the worst in the league this season with a 5.05 ERA (28th).
Twins ML (-250)
Pablo Lopez has been excellent for the Twins this season and he draws the start tonight at home. Since the All-Star break, Lopez has pitched to a 2.95 ERA while striking out nearly 11 per nine innings this season. He faces a Pirates team that is tied for the 10th-highest K rate in the league, so Pittsburgh is unlikely to put up a lot of runs on the road tonight.
Andre Jackson, who has an ERA of 6.62 this year, is expected to start a bullpen game for the Pirates, who have a 54-66 record this season and have lost six of their last 10. The Twins have a 63-59 record this season, and currently lead the AL Central division by more than four games.
I also like the +100 play for the Twins to cover the run line tonight.
The Bets:
Single game bet: Twins -1.5 (+100)
Two-game parlay: Twins ML + Phillies ML (+115)
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Jennifer Piacenti is a fantasy sports and betting analyst for Sports Illustrated. She serves as a host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio and has her own podcast, “Waiver Wired,” on the Extra Points podcast network. Piacenti is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye” and is a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts. She is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and is a 2020 Scott Fish Bowl finalist.