MLB Best Bet: Pair of Playoff Contenders Will Score Plenty of Runs

Bank on Red Sox-Astros hitting the over Monday night.

We will be rooting for runs Monday night as the Red Sox take on the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston.

Both teams are in the running for an AL Wild Card bid, and Houston will be looking to make up ground on the Rangers for the AL West title. The Red Sox are coming off a three-game win streak vs. the division-rival Yankees, and the Astros are coming off a three-game losing streak after being swept at home by the division-rival Mariners. I expect both teams to be feisty tonight.

Cristian Javier gets the start at home tonight for the Astros. That’s probably good news for the Red Sox, as Javier has not looked like the dominant pitcher we expected this season. His 55.4% fly ball rate is third in the MLB among starters behind only Nestor Cortes and JP Sears. The Red Sox should be able to get in their knocks. Boston has been averaging 4.5 runs per game in August. Rafael Devers, Tristan Casas and Justin Turner have all been swinging the bat well and could easily go yard tonight.

Despite coming off a brutal sweep to the Mariners, the Astros have also been hitting the ball well in August, scoring an average of 5.28 runs per game. Specifically, they have been hitting lefties well, and that bodes well for the matchup with James Paxton. Paxton is the kind of pitcher that can get hit hard if he doesn't have his best stuff. Paxton is the better pitcher in this matchup on paper with a 3.34 ERA this season, but Houston is hitting .271 (sixth) vs. lefties with a .338 OBP (fifth), .799 OPS (fourth), .461 SLG (fourth) and .190 ISO (fourth). Kyle Tucker (who should return to the lineup today after an illness) is hitting .335 with 11 homers vs. southpaws this season while Yordan Alvarez is hitting .315 with six round-trips. And let’s not forget Jose Altuve, who just notched career-hit 2,000 on Saturday. Altuve is hitting .333 with two home runs in 10 career at-bats vs. Paxton. Even if Paxton gives Boston a strong start, Houston should be able to tag their bullpen for more than a few runs. Boston’s pen has an ERA of 6.27 in August.

It’s even money to play the over, so that’s what we are going to do.

The Bet: Red Sox-Astros over 9 runs (+100)

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