College Football Week 1 Betting Preview: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 FSU, No. 21 UNC vs. South Carolina

The two biggest games this weekend feature the SEC vs. ACC at neutral sites in the South.

Kyle Wood | Aug 30, 2023

College Football Week 1 Betting Preview: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 FSU, No. 21 UNC vs. South Carolina /

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Last weekend was the soft launch of the 2023 college football season.

Navy-Notre Dame was hyped up as the best game and it was a blowout by halftime. Defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams shined in a rout of San Jose State, but only Pac-12 Network subscribers got to see him go to work.

College football returns in earnest for all to see this weekend, with games taking place Thursday through Monday.

There’s only one meeting between two top-25 teams in Week 1 and it gets the Sunday night primetime treatment once again this year. No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Florida State converge on Orlando for a bout that could have an outsized impact on the College Football Playoff race. The other must-see game is also an ACC-SEC clash, as No. 21 North Carolina is set to take on South Carolina in Charlotte on Saturday.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels leads a loaded Tigers offense :: Matt Pendleton/USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 Florida State

The Seminoles took down the Tigers in an instant classic in New Orleans a year ago. The 24-23 final score doesn’t tell the full story of a wild fourth quarter that saw the two teams trade fumbles in the final few minutes only for Jayden Daniels to lead a 99-yard scoring drive that would have forced overtime were it not for a blocked extra point attempt with zeros on the clock.

That win kick-started the turnaround in Tallahassee. After four consecutive losing seasons, Florida State won 10 games under Mike Norvell and earned its highest preseason ranking since 2017 as a result. Conversely, LSU’s loss seemingly spelled trouble for Brian Kelly in his first year in Baton Rouge. Instead, the Tigers turned around and won 10 of their next 12 games to finish first in the SEC West and land in the preseason top five for the first time since 2016.

FSU quarterback Jordan Travis accounted for 31 touchdowns, over 3,500 total yards and led a top-20 scoring offense (36.1 points per game) during his breakout redshirt junior season. Now, he returns as a Heisman candidate with his leading receiver, Johnny Wilson, and the team’s top rusher, Travis Benson, alongside him. The Seminoles also finished as a top-20 unit on defense (19.7 points per game) in large part due to defensive end Jared Verse, a projected top-10 draft pick who opted to return for his redshirt junior year. Norvell also dipped into the transfer portal to bolster both units, namely with the arrival of receiver Keon Coleman, tight end Jaheim Bell, defensive tackle Braden Fiske and cornerback Fentrell Cypress.

Daniels recorded his finest campaign as a passer (2,900 yards, 17 touchdowns, three interceptions) and a rusher (885 yards, 11 touchdowns) in his first year at LSU. Malik Nabers is back after surpassing 1,000 receiving yards as a sophomore along with most of the starting offense. The Tigers could hang with most teams on offense with a top-25 unit (34.5 points per game) but their defense ranked outside the top 40 (23.7 points per game) and allowed 30 or more points four times, including a season-worst 50 to Georgia in the SEC Championship.

The over hit more often than not for the Tigers (8–6) and Seminoles (7–6) a season ago and as the year progressed it did so at an increasingly high rate for both teams. From Week 7 on, the over was 7–1 in LSU games and 5–2 in FSU games. Given the level of offensive talent on the field — Heisman candidates under center and projected first-round receivers at their disposal — the over seems like the smart play here.

BET: Over 56.5 (-110)

South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler raises his hands up in celebration — Spencer Rattler and South Carolina are looking to pull off the Week 1 upset. :: Anderson Independent Mail/USA TODAY Sports

No. 21 North Carolina vs. South Carolina

The Tar Heels and Gamecocks finished the 2022 season trending in opposite directions. After a 9–1 start, UNC dropped its final four games of the year and lost twice as a home favorite. Meanwhile, a middling South Carolina upset then-No. 5 Tennessee 63-38 and followed that with a 31-30 win at No. 8 Clemson in the regular-season finale. Shane Beamer’s squad fell to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl, 45-38, but finished the year No. 19 in the final CFP rankings.

These programs last met in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in 2021 when Beamer capped off his first season in Columbia with a 38-21 win over Mack Brown’s Tar Heels.

North Carolina begins 2023 ranked ahead of South Carolina, which is just outside the AP Top 25 in the preseason poll, and quarterback Drake Maye is a big reason why. He finished 10th in Heisman voting a season ago and is seen as the second-best quarterback in the 2024 class after Caleb Williams. Maye accounted for 45 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards of offense as a redshirt sophomore but his top two targets, Josh Downs and Antoine Greene, both departed for the NFL. Nate McCollum and Devontez Walker were brought in to replace that lost production at wide receiver, but Walker’s status is uncertain as he awaits a decision from the NCAA on his appeal after his waiver for immediate eligibility was denied following his second transfer.

With Maye under center, UNC’s offense had little trouble scoring (34.5 points per game) but a lackluster defense (31 points allowed per game) made for some close calls, like a 63-61 shootout at Appalachian State, and ultimately doomed the team down the stretch.

Gamecocks’ quarterback Spencer Rattler had a resurgent campaign in Columbia after he was benched and then transferred from Oklahoma. He finished with over 3,000 passing yards and 21 total touchdowns — 11 of those touchdowns and over 1,000 of Rattler’s yards came during his final three games. Receiver Antwane Wells Jr. returns for his senior year as the top option in the offense after an All-SEC campaign. The offense had its ups and downs (six points against Florida and a season-high 63 against Tennessee the following week) but still finished as an above average unit (32.2 points per game). The same cannot be said for South Carolina’s defense (27.5 points allowed per game), which also lost a lot of production up front.

The Gamecocks have a real chance to pull off the upset Saturday in Charlotte. South Carolina has what it takes to keep pace with North Carolina on offense and the strength of its defense is the secondary, which could help limit Maye. Beamer’s team won outright as an underdog four times in 2022 and did so twice in hostile environments.

BET: South Carolina Moneyline (+110)

College Football Betting Record: 1-1

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Published Aug 30, 2023

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.