Lions vs. Chiefs Best Bets, Predictions and Odds for Week 1

The reigning Super Bowl champions are 4.5 point favorites over the Lions in the NFL's 2023 season opener.

The NFL season kicks off Thursday night as the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs host the Lions at Arrowhead Stadium. According to the oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook Kansas City is favored by 4.5 and the 52.5 game total is the highest of the week.

Of course, those numbers were slightly higher (6.5, 54.5) before yesterday’s news that Travis Kelce suffered a knee injury and his status is in doubt for the game.

Still, Kansas City not only gets the home-field advantage but also the advantage of having the reigning NFL and Super Bowl MVP, Patrick Mahomes, under-center. It's easy to see why they are favored by a wide margin. They remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl again this season at +600 odds.

The Lions get the primetime matchup after showing us last season they should not be ignored. After finishing second in the NFC North in 2022, the Lions are the favorite to win the division at +130 odds, according to SI Sportsbook.

Lions vs. Chiefs Odds and Game Info

• Moneyline: Detroit Lions (+170) |Kansas City Chiefs (-213)
• Spread: Detroit +4.5 (-110) | Kansas City -4.5 (-110)
• Total: 52.5 -Over (-110) | Under (-110)
• Game Info: Thursday Sept. 7, 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC

Lions vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Kansas City -4.5

Darren Yamashita/USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs will return with much of the same Super Bowl-championship crew, minus wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster and  Chris Jones, who is currently holding out for a new contract. The Lions allowed an average of 245.8 passing yards per game last season (3rd most in the NFL) and will likely have a hard time containing Mahomes, even without Kelce; he still has Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or even pass-catching back Jerick McKinnon. The Lions also allowed 146.5 rushing yards per game in 2022 (4th-most), so expect Isaiah Paceco also to see a reasonable workload.

Though Detroit's defense left much to be desired last year, the Lions' offense was one of the top-scoring in the league. The Chiefs have been generous to opposing passers in recent games, so expect Jared Goff and emerging superstar wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown to connect. Rookies tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs will also be used in the passing game, and the Lions should be able to put some points on the board. David Montogomery may struggle a bit vs. the Chiefs' run defense, and the presumed game script suggests this game will more than likely take place through the air. It's a shame the Lions will be missing Jameson Williams for this contest.

Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports

Though the Chiefs were the best team in the NFL last season, they could have been better at covering the spread. The Chiefs covered only 42.1% of the time during the 2022 regular season (8-11-1).

Detroit, however, had the second-best record ATS in 2022, covering 70.6% of the time (12-5-0).

Still, it's hard to go away from the Chiefs here, even if there is a bit of a Super Bowl hangover. I like the Lions, but there's too much helium for a team with far less winning experience. I'll take the Chiefs to cover in a fun one on Thursday night.

---

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700. The Arena Media Brands, LLC and its partners may receive compensation for links to products and services on this website.