Lions-Chiefs ‘Thursday Night Football’ Player Props to Target

It’s easy to bank on Patrick Mahomes, and here are three other players that offer value.

Kansas City opened as a 6.5-point favorite at home Thursday vs. the Lions, but that number fell to 4.5 after news of Travis Kelce’s injury came out. Even if Kelce doesn’t play, however, there are plenty of offensive playmakers who could be expected to perform well with the game total set all the way up at 51.5 at SI Sportsbook.

Continue to monitor Kelce’s status. For now I am fading his player props, but if he plays he could be worth the anytime TD wager or see if you can get a discount on his receiving yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown will also likely be successful, though he isn’t included below.

O.K., now ... let’s have some fun!

Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs (+105)

Since taking over as the Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018, Mahomes has never thrown for fewer than three touchdowns in the first game of the season. SI Sportsbook is offering plus money for him to do it vs. the Lions, who allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns in 2022, in a game with a 51.5 total at SISB. I know the Lions added Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Mosely and drafted Brian Branch, but this is Mahomes. I’ll bite.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 27.5 receiving yards (-125)

O.K., I’ve heard enough about how creatively the Lions are going to use their flashy new rookie. Let’s see it already! We have to figure Detroit will use Gibbs in the passing game, especially with no Jameson Williams. In 2022, offenses targeted running backs when facing the Chiefs more than any other team in the league (152 total targets). Why? The Chiefs allowed an 82.2% catch rate to opposing runners. That was the third-highest in the league.

Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs :: Junfu Han/The Detroit Free Press/USA TODAY NETWORK

Isiah Pacheco over 49.5 rushing yards (-125)

Detroit allowed an average of 100 yards per game last season to opposing runners, and I think Pacheco will be good for at least half of that. Pacheco was excellent once taking over the starting job for Kansas City last season in Week 10, and he would have cleared this mark in seven of eight games between Weeks 10-18 in 2022. I expect we are getting a discount due to his injured shoulder, but Pacheco has been cleared for contact, and his only other competition is likely Jerick McKinnon, who I expect will be used in more of a receiving role.

Sam LaPorta over 31.5 receiving yards (-120)

I have been high on LaPorta this offseason, so I am not going to go away from him now. Jared Goff will be looking for able receivers, and LaPorta should be in line for a decent amount of volume. We saw T.J. Hockenson average more than six targets per game last season with the Lions, and LaPorta -- an early second-round pick out of Iowa -- took first-team reps all preseason. He should be able to get this done.

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