Bills-Jets ‘Monday Night Football’ Week 1 Odds, Bets and Point Total Breakdown

Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers will get all the attention, but don’t sleep on these defenses.

The bookend to Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is perhaps its most anticipated game.

Josh Allen’s Bills are 2.5-point road favorites over Aaron Rodgers’s Jets on Monday. The total is set at 45.5, according to SI Sportsbook. The first Monday Night Football game of the year will mark Rodgers’ New York debut after he spent the first 18 years of his career playing for the Packers.

Buffalo has won five of the last six against its AFC East foe, but the Jets came out on top, 20-17, last November when these teams last met at MetLife Stadium. Allen, who injured his UCL in that Week 9 loss, tossed two interceptions and took five sacks. He struggled again in a 20-12 Week 14 win as he was held under 200 total yards and was sacked three more times.

Rodgers went up against Buffalo a season ago and Green Bay fell 27-17 on the road. Von Miller was active for that contest, which saw Rodgers throw an interception and take two sacks, though the Bills will be without the veteran pass rusher here, as he starts the season on the PUP list.

Bills vs. Jets Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Bills (-137) | Jets (+115)
Spread: BUF -2.5 (-110) | NYJ +2.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Monday, Sep. 11, 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN

Bills vs. Jets Best Bet: Under 46.5

New York will be relying on new players all over the offense. Along with Rodgers, receivers Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman signed with the team in free agency, as did Randall Cobb. Running back Dalvin Cook joined the Jets less than a month ago and veteran Duane Brown is sliding in at left tackle. Running back Breece Hall (ACL) and right tackle Mekhi Becton (knee) are both returning from injuries as well — both players are listed as questionable, as is Brown.

Garrett Wilson is the player to watch in the receiver room. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year surpassed 1,100 yards last season in spite of poor quarterback play and exhibited a connection with Rodgers in the preseason. He also had over 75 yards receiving in both games against Buffalo a year ago.

Robert Saleh’s defense profiles as one of the league’s best. Headlined by All-Pros at cornerback (Sauce Gardner) and defensive tackle (Quinnen Williams), New York allowed just 18.6 points per game in 2022, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Two of the Bills’ three lowest-scoring games of the season came against this unit.

Buffalo is running it back with largely the same group, save for some new weapons around Allen. Receiver Deonte Harty, running back Damien Harris and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid are all new additions, as are guards Conner McGovern and rookie O’Cyrus Torrence along the offensive line.

It sounds like offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey wants to involve second-year running back James Cook more after the departure of Devin Singletary. Still, this offense runs through Allen and his connection with receiver Stefon Diggs.

The defense lost its leading tackler Tremaine Edmunds but welcomes back safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde as well as cornerback Tre’Davious White. That trio played a combined 20 regular-season games in 2022 and Buffalo’s defense still allowed just 17.9 points per game to opponents, the second-best mark in the league.

The Bills have one of the best offenses in the NFL with a dual-threat quarterback under center in Allen. The Jets expect to have a much-improved offense considering the upgrade they made at quarterback from Zach Wilson to Rodgers. However, these defenses are both more than capable of keeping the opposing offenses in check.

Fewer than 40 points have been scored the last three times these teams matched up. The under hit each time.

Buffalo has a strong secondary and a capable pass rush, even with Miller sidelined. That’s a recipe for Rodgers to have to get the ball out quickly given the offensive line concerns. New York’s secondary is led by a shutdown corner and the defensive line is headlined by a dominant pass rusher that pressured Allen last season.

Look for the under to hit for the fourth time in a row in this prime-time, divisional bout.

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