NFL Week 1 Five Best Over/Under Bets

Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert should put up big numbers, while Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell Wilson could struggle in their openers.

It’s not easy predicting how teams are going to perform in their respective season openers, especially the ones with new quarterbacks and coaches.

But it’s also tough on the oddsmakers, and that means there’s money to be made in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

To save time for football bettors, I examined the over/under totals for all 16 games this week. Five stood out, including a low total for two teams with star-studded rosters.

Here are the five best over/under bets for NFL Week 1 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).

1. 49ers at Steelers

Stan Szeto (Purdy) and Michael Longo (Pickett)/USA TODAY Sports

• Over/under: 40.5
• Prediction: Over

The oddsmakers are taking a wait-and-see approach with Kenny Pickett’s possible breakout season. This low total suggests they’re not putting too much stock into Pickett’s impressive preseason performances. There’s also too much respect for the two standout defenses, and bettors should take advantage of that. If Pickett continues to attack downfield in the regular season, the Steelers have enough talent to score 20-plus points against a stellar 49ers defense. Nick Bosa is back, agreeing to a five-year, $170 million extension, but he might not be at full strength after missing all of training camp during his contract holdout. The 49ers could have some trouble on the road vs. T.J. Watt and Co., but quarterback Brock Purdy appeared healthy in training camp, and he has the best group of skill players at his disposal.

2. Texans at Ravens

Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

• Over/under: 43.5
• Prediction: Over

The Ravens will have a new-look offense this season, and Lamar Jackson has a track record of playing well in season openers. For the past four Week 1 matchups, the Ravens have averaged 37 points, including scoring 59 points against the Dolphins in 2019—the beginning of Jackson’s MVP campaign. Perhaps Jackson and the Ravens will have an adjustment phase with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, but the Texans aren’t expected to have a stout defense, at least not this early under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. The Texans’ offense could also do their part with scoring after rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud displayed promise in the preseason. Baltimore might have trouble generating a consistent pass rush with a group of inexperienced players in the defensive front.

3. Packers at Bears

Mark Hoffman/USA Today Sports Network

• Over/under: 43.5
• Prediction: Under

The combination of Jordan Love and the Packers’ talented defense made me favor the under for this NFC North clash. I’m expecting Love to have a standout first season as the Packers’ full-time starting quarterback, but it might take him some time to mesh with his young group of pass catchers, including second-year players Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. Also, the Bears will likely be better defensively with the arrivals of linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. As for the Chicago offense, the new partnership of Justin Fields and DJ Moore could have trouble against the Jaire Alexander–led defense.

4. Dolphins at Chargers

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio/USA Today network

• Over/under: 50.5
• Prediction: Over

There’s some slight doubt here because the Chargers and Dolphins only scored a combined 40 points in Los Angeles last season. But it’s hard not to take the over with two stacked offenses, which include dynamic wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for Miami. The Chargers have star quarterback Justin Herbert, who’s expected to push the ball downfield with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore—and they don’t have to worry about cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who’s sidelined with a knee injury. Perhaps Miami coach Mike McDaniel finds success against L.A. coach Brandon Staley’s defense for this second matchup.

5. Raiders at Broncos

Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports

• Over/under: 44.5
• Prediction: Under

Don’t expect a high-scoring affair in Denver with so many new pieces on both sides. After a few dreadful preseason outings, it’s clear that new Broncos coach Sean Payton has an uphill battle to fix Russell Wilson and the Denver offense. And, yes, the Raiders’ defense might struggle again, but they do have a pass rush with Maxx Crosby and rookie Tyree Wilson. Wilson is going to need time to operate with a lack of depth at wide receiver after a wave of injuries hit the position during training camp. The Raiders are also unveiling a new offense with the arrival of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and running back Josh Jacobs might need a game or two to find his rhythm after missing most of the summer because of his contract holdout. Garoppolo also has to deal with cornerback Patrick Surtain II shadowing wide receiver Davante Adams. 

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