College Football Week 6 Predictions and Best Bets

Picks for the Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas and a top-25 matchup featuring Notre Dame and Louisville.

As the calendar flips to October and conference play is in full swing the stakes only get higher across college football.

The sixth week of the season brings four top-25 matchups, including a few key games between unbeaten teams. The Red River Rivalry between No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 3 Texas is the headliner, but don’t sleep on No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 25 Louisville, No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri or No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia.

Texas A&M is also set to host No. 11 Alabama in an SEC West clash between the top two teams in the division, so keep an eye on the score in College Station this Saturday.

The two games that we’re focusing on this week are Oklahoma-Texas, playing for the final time as members of the Big 12 before their move to the SEC, and Notre Dame-Louisville.

No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Texas Odds and Best Bet

Spread: Oklahoma +6.5 (-110) | Texas -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline: OU (+188) | TEX (-250)

Total: 60.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Game Info: Saturday, Oct. 7 | 12 p.m. ET | ABC

Location: Cotton Bowl | Dallas, TX

Oklahoma vs. Texas Best Bet: Over 60.5 (-110)

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Texas Quarterback Quinn Ewers celebrates a Longhorns victory :: Aaron E. Martinez/USA TODAY Network

The Longhorns beat the brakes off the Sooners in the Cotton Bowl last season for the first time since 2018. Without quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who was out with a concussion, Oklahoma was unable to move the ball and fell 49–0.

Gabriel is back for his fifth collegiate season and he’s leading an offense that averages 47.4 points per game, the third-most in the nation. Gabriel ranks sixth in passing yards (1,593), just behind Heisman frontrunner Caleb Williams, and is completing better than 75% of his throws. OU (5–0) is undefeated against the spread and its closest margin of victory this season was a 14-point road win over Cincinnati.

The Sooners back up their elite offense with a shutdown defense that allows just 10.8 points per game, which is tied for fourth-fewest in the FBS. Here comes the caveat: Oklahoma ranks 82nd in ESPN’s strength of schedule. For comparison, Texas, which beat then-No. 3 Alabama on the road and a top-25 Kansas team at home last week, is 16th in strength of schedule.

Brent Venables’ defense will be tested by Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has accounted for 15 total touchdowns and one turnover on the year. Texas (5–0) averages 36 points and nearly 200 rushing yards per game in large part thanks to Jonathan Brooks, who just ran for 218 yards and two scores against the Jayhawks and has the third-most rushing yards in the country (597). Steve Sarkisian’s defense only allows 12.8 points per game, which is tied for the 12th-fewest.

This game has seen some shootouts in recent years. Three of the last five installments of the Red River Rivalry have seen at least 90 points scored. The two outliers were last season when Gabriel was out and the Sooners were shut out and 2018, when OU won, 34–27.

Ewers and Gabriel have both established themselves as Heisman candidates who are in charge of explosive offenses. Texas has yet to score fewer than 30 points in 2023 and Oklahoma already has three 50 burgers. The Longhorns have the upper hand on defense, but both of these offenses are more than capable of scoring the requisite points for the over to cash in Dallas.

Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman and Fighting Irish will take on Louisville on October 7th :: Matt Cashore/USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 25 Louisville

Spread: Notre Dame -6.5 (-110) | Louisville +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline: ND (-250) | LOU (+188)

Total: 54.5 – Over (-105) | Under (-120)

Game Info: Saturday, Oct. 7 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC

Location: Cardinal Stadium | Louisville, KY

Best Bet: Notre Dame -6.5 (-110)

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A last-minute breakaway score by Audric Estime was the difference for the Fighting Irish last week at Duke. The nation’s leading rusher scored both of Notre Dame’s touchdowns in a 21–14 triumph. After splitting games against the Buckeyes and Blue Devils, Marcus Freeman’s squad will play its third straight undefeated, top-25 team Saturday at Louisville.

ND (5–1) continues to be one of the best teams in the country against the pass. Its defense ranks fourth in passing yards allowed per game (146.8) and first in completion percentage against (46.9%). Teams have fared better against the Fighting Irish on the ground. That might be the recipe for the Cardinals, whose leading rusher Jawhar Jordan ranks 12th nationally in rushing yards (510).

Jordan was held to just 32 yards in last week’s 13–10 win at NC State (a team Notre Dame beat 45–24 on the road), so Louisville (5–0) had to lean on quarterback Jack Plummer. The transfer signal-caller has thrown at least one interception in all but one game — a five-touchdown performance in a blowout against Boston College — but he also ranks top-20 in passing yards (1,406).

The Fighting Irish and Cardinals are pretty evenly matched on offense, the former averages 36.5 points per game and the latter is good for 37. Notre Dame has the edge on defense, though, as it holds opponents to just 13 points per game, compared to 17.3 for Louisville. The biggest difference is that ND has held up better against much harder opponents — it ranks 10th in strength of schedule compared to 108th. What’s more, the Fighting Irish are 4–1–1 against the spread while the Cardinals are just 2–3. Saturday will also be the first time Jeff Brohm's first is installed as an underdog all year.

Notre Dame has the advantage under center with Sam Hartman, who’s yet to throw an interception, and in the backfield with Estime. Its defense has the upper hand in the matchup as well, especially against a quarterback who’s among the FBS leaders in interceptions. The Fighting Irish have already gone on the road twice this season and covered as a favorite, plus they’ve won 30 straight regular-season games against ACC foes. We’re riding with them once again this week.

College Football Betting Record: 10-2

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