College Football Week 7 Predictions and Best Bets

Picks for a top-10 Pac-12 bout between Oregon and Washington and an ACC showdown between Miami and North Carolina.

Kyle Wood | Oct 11, 2023

College Football Week 7 Predictions and Best Bets /

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A new week on the college football calendar brings a handful of more top-25 matchups, including a top-10 showdown.

Saturday is a big day around the Pac-12 as No. 8 Oregon is set to visit No. 7 Washington, No. 18 UCLA plays No. 15 Oregon State and No. 10 USC takes on No. 21 Notre Dame. The other big game going on this weekend is in the ACC, as No. 12 North Carolina hosts No. 25 Miami, which just suffered a heartbreaking defeat.

There’s also a pair of big SEC bouts on deck as Texas A&M travels to play No. 19 Tennessee and Missouri matches up with No. 24 Kentucky.

We’re focusing on the Oregon-Washington and North Carolina-Miami games this week.

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 7 Washington

University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. — Zachary BonDurant/USA TODAY Sports

The Huskies upset the Ducks in Eugene last November, 37–34, as a 12-point underdog. Michael Penix Jr. outdueled Bo Nix as he finished with over 400 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns. Now, these two veteran quarterbacks are going head-to-head once again, this time as Heisman candidates leading two of the three highest-scoring offenses in the FBS.

Oregon (5–0, 2–0 Pac-12) averages the second-most points per game (51.6) after USC and second-most yards per game (557.8) behind Washington. The Ducks are also the only offense in the country that’s top 10 in both passing (330.6) and rushing yards (227.2) per game. Naturally, Nix is at the heart of that. He’s thrown at least two touchdowns in each game and has 15 touchdowns to just one interception on the season. Led by Bucky Irving and Jordan James, Oregon boasts the most efficient rushing offense in college football, gaining an average of 7.06 yards per carry.

So far this season, Washington (5–0, 2–0 Pac-12) has held up better defensively on the ground than through the air. The Huskies held their first three opponents to 36 total points but since conference play began they allowed 32 to Cal in a blowout and 24 to Arizona in a close one. UW is just outside the top 25 in points allowed (18.4) and is tied for the fifth-most interceptions (eight).

The Ducks are a top-10 defense in points (11.8) and yards (255.6) allowed. They’ve also been one of the best teams at getting to opposing quarterbacks with 18 sacks on the year. Penix, like Nix, has only been sacked three times in 2023.

Oregon will have to contend with the most prolific passer in the country in Penix. He has almost 2,000 yards, 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions and he leads the country in yards per attempt (11.2). His top target Rome Odunze has the fifth-most receiving yards in the country (608). The Huskies run at one of the lowest rates in college football, but Dillon Johnson gives them a respectable rushing offense when Penix isn’t passing.

The Ducks are one of a handful of teams that’s still perfect against the spread this season, but this is the first time they’ve been installed as underdogs. Oregon went 0–2 as an underdog under Dan Lanning last year and hasn’t covered in its last five underdog spots. Meanwhile, Washington has won nine in a row at Husky Stadium and is 6–3 ATS during that streak.

UW had the firepower to win a shootout last year on the road and that will be the case again this year at home.

Oregon vs. Washington Best Bet: Washington -2.5 (-120)

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No. 25 Miami vs. No. 12 North Carolina

The Hurricanes limp into Chapel Hill after an all-time heartbreaking loss to Georgia Tech in their ACC opener. Miami inexplicably opted to run a play in the game’s final minute while nursing a three-point lead instead of running out the clock and a fumble set up a game-winning touchdown for the Hornets, who won 23–20 as 19-point road underdogs.

While UM (4–1, 0–1 ACC) was snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, the Tar Heels built on their strong start with a 40–7 triumph over Syracuse at home. North Carolina (5–0, 2–0 ACC) carries a four-game winning streak over Miami into this weekend, though three of those games were decided by a field goal, including a 27–24 UNC win in Miami Gardens last October.

The Hurricanes offense that propped up their 4–0 start was nowhere to be found last week. Tyler Van Dyke tossed three interceptions to only one touchdown and one of the best running games in the FBS was limited to 3.5 yards per carry. Still, Miami averages 39 points and over 500 yards of offense per game. Henry Parrish Jr. leads a rushing attack that’s good for over 200 yards on the ground and Van Dyke and Xavier Restrepo have developed quite the rapport.

UNC’s rushing defense has been a mixed bag so far. It held South Carolina to negative rushing yards but Appalachian State gained over 200. UM only went for 42 yards on 18 attempts in the last meeting. The Tar Heels defense has done a good job of disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far with 13 sacks and seven interceptions, though Van Dyke only had one interception before last week and he’s taken just three sacks all season.

North Carolina isn’t far behind Miami on offense. It averages 36.6 points and an even 500 yards per game, the bulk of which Drake Maye accounts for with his arm and with his legs. He just enjoyed his best game of the young season with almost 500 total yards and four touchdowns against the Orange. The Tar Heels offense also just added a weapon last week when Devontez Walker was cleared to play. The transfer receiver had 43 yards on six catches in his Carolina blue debut.

Considering the Hurricanes have the second-best run defense in the country, look for Maye to air it out often, like he did against Syracuse.

The over hasn’t hit at a high rate for either team this season. It’s happened twice for UM and three times for UNC. But given the potency of both offenses, 57 feels like an easy enough number to reach. The Tar Heels haven’t been held to less than 31 all season and the Hurricanes have scored 38 or more in all but one game.

Miami vs. North Carolina Best Bet: Over 56.5 (-120)

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College Football Betting Record: 11–3

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Published Oct 11, 2023

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.