2023-24 NBA Awards Odds and Betting Primer
NBA awards races will include a new wrinkle this upcoming season: a minimum games played requirement.
Players are required to be on the floor for at least 20 minutes for a minimum of 65 games in order to qualify for individual honors, such as All-NBA and MVP. That could make things interesting in a league in which rest has become rampant to the point that new rules have been implemented aimed at curtailing load management.
This new requirement would have altered the Defensive Player of the Year race last season as Jaren Jackson Jr. appeared in only 63 games. A few other winners just barely made the cut: MVP Joel Embiid and Most Improved Player Lauri Markkanen both played 66 games and Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon was on the floor for 67.
This new requirement is important to keep in mind when it comes to NBA awards odds for the coming campaign, especially considering Giannis Antetokounmpo -- one of the favorites to win MVP and Defensive Player of the Year -- played in just 63 games last year, which would have disqualified him from the running.
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Let’s take a look at the top candidates for the league’s six individual honors with the start of the season less than two weeks away.
MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: +450
Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports
Antetokounmpo is already a two-time MVP and he’s the co-favorite with Nikola Jokić to win his third. He averaged a career-high 31.1 points per game last season for a Bucks team that won an NBA-best 58 games but some of his advanced stats dipped a bit from where they were in recent years. Teaming up with Damian Lillard should help improve Antetokounmpo’s efficiency numbers after he led the league in usage percentage. Even a ho-hum campaign for Antetokounmpo should mean 50-plus wins for Milwaukee and a shot at another MVP — he’s finished no lower than fourth in voting in the last five seasons.
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets: +450
Jokić is also a two-time MVP who’s fresh off his first Finals MVP. He was 0.2 assists per game shy of averaging a triple double in the regular season and he finished top five in both assists and rebounds per game. Jokić put together a wildly efficient offensive campaign, though his scoring average fell as his shooting percentages soared. The Nuggets finished first in the West a year ago, but Embiid still beat out Jokić for the league’s top individual honor. Jokić has now finished first or second in MVP voting three years in a row and, crucially, he has never played fewer than 69 games in a season.
Luka Dončić, Mavericks: +500
Dončić once again had a remarkable statistical season, but this time the Mavericks didn’t have the record to match. Dallas missed the play-in entirely despite career-high averages in points per game (32.4) and field-goal percentage (49.6) by its best player. Dončić has gone up a level each year he’s been in the league but an 11th-place finish put a damper on his candidacy even as he entered the year as the MVP favorite. Perhaps a full season for Dončić alongside Kyrie Irving will render better results than the 5–11 record the Mavericks posted when they shared the floor last season.
Other MVP Candidates:
Joel Embiid, 76ers: +600
Jayson Tatum, Celtics: +850
Kevin Durant, Suns: +1200
Stephen Curry, Warriors: +1400
Devin Booker, Suns: +1600
Rookie of the Year
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs: -161
Wembanyama enters the NBA with the most hype of any prospect since LeBron James 20 years ago. The No. 1 pick is the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year and he is expected to make an immediate impact on both ends of the floor for the Spurs. Wembanyama averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks in two summer league appearances and he was good for a 20-point double-double and three blocks per game in his final season with the Metropolitan 92s in France. San Antonio’s two previous No. 1 picks, David Robertson and Tim Duncan, both earned Rookie of the Year honors.
Chet Holmgren, Thunder: +333
Holmgren, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 draft, missed all of what would have been his first season due to a Lisfranc fracture. As such, he maintains Rookie of the Year eligibility heading into his first year as a pro. Holmgren was a defensive force at Gonzaga, swatting over 3.5 shots and pulling down nearly 10 rebounds nightly. He also averaged 14.1 points per game on 61/39/72 shooting splits. Holmgren is set to join a promising, young Thunder team that’s projected to take a leap after a play-in appearance and will undoubtedly benefit from the addition of an adept shot blocker.
Scoot Henderson, Trail Blazers: +333
Henderson has big shoes to fill in Portland as he’s set to take over for Lillard, the 2013 ROTY, after over a decade of All-Star level point guard play. Henderson impressed in one year in the G League, where he averaged 16.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game. The Trail Blazers’ new-look supporting cast after the Lillard and subsequent Jrue Holiday deals might help ease Henderson’s transition into the NBA and he’s already shown he can stuff the stat sheet.
Other ROTY Candidates:
Brandon Miller, Hornets: +1200
Amen Thompson, Rockets: +2000
Ausar Thompson, Pistons: +2800
Cam Whitmore, Rockets: +4000
Keyonte George, Jazz: +4000
Coach of the Year
Erik Spoelstra, Heat: +800
Marta Lavandier/AP
Miami’s longtime coach has inexplicably still never won the NBA’s top coaching honor, but after a second Finals appearance in four years, he enters 2023 as the betting favorite. This award typically goes to a team that either finishes at the top of the standings or experiences a sizable jump in wins year over year. The Heat could be a candidate for the latter, though it will take another stellar coaching job by Spoelstra after the departure of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus and the swing and miss on Lillard.
Nick Nurse, 76ers: +850
Nurse has his work cut out for him as he takes over the top job in Philadelphia. James Harden’s trade request looms large over the 76ers, who were bounced in the second round for the third straight season. Embiid finally captured that elusive MVP trophy in 2023, as Philly turned in another 50-win campaign but Boston and Milwaukee both made massive offseason upgrades while the 76ers made moves around the margins. Nurse won COTY in Toronto with a one-year Kawhi Leonard rental but this situation presents a different degree of difficulty.
Michael Malone, Nuggets: +900
Malone has coached Denver to a top-two seed in the West twice now and has hardly received much COTY attention. The Nuggets, who got off to a scorching 46–19 start last year, cruised to the end of the regular season and still finished first in the conference by two games. With the core of Jokić, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. still intact, 50 wins feels like the floor and this team showed how high its ceiling is on its 16–4 run to the title in the postseason.
Other COTY Candidates:
Joe Mazzulla, Celtics: +1000
Mark Daigneault, Thunder: +1000
Adrian Griffin, Bucks: +1200
Frank Vogel, Suns: +1200
Jason Kidd, Mavericks: +1400
Most Improved Player
Mikal Bridges, Nets: +600
Bridges finished fourth in Most Improved Player voting last season as he came into his own offensively. His splits before and after he was shipped away in the Kevin Durant trade were staggering: 17.2 points per game in 56 games for the Suns (which would have set a new career-high) and 26.1 points per game across 27 for the Nets. He ended up averaging better than 20 points for the year as the primary offensive threat for a third of the season in Brooklyn and a high-end defender for its entirety. Bridges enters his sixth year in the league as a prime candidate to make a leap and potentially earn his first All-Star nod.
Austin Reaves, Lakers: +1200
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
Reaves nearly doubled his scoring average as a sophomore from 7.3 to 13 points per game and then he took it up another notch in the postseason. He finished the season as a full-time starter and he was not only one of the Lakers’ most reliable shooters but one of the most efficient shooters in the entire league. Reaves enters his third year in the NBA as a full-time starter on a team with title aspirations. More minutes and more shots will follow, which could afford him the opportunity to compile enough counting stats to make a case for Most Improved.
Cade Cunningham, Pistons: +1200
Cunningham played just 12 games last year before a stress fracture in his leg sidelined him for the remainder of his sophomore season. It’s a small sample size but his scoring average was up to 19.9 points per game from 17.4 as a rookie, though his shooting percentages still left much to be desired. Cunningham returns to a Detroit team that has a new coach in Dwane Casey and he’ll also have a new backcourt partner, No. 5 pick Ausar Thompson. Cunningham has the chance to remind people why he went first overall in the 2021 draft this season.
Other MIP Candidates:
Tyrese Maxey, 76ers: +1400
Alperen Sengun, Rockets: +1600
Scottie Barnes, Raptors: +1600
Jordan Poole, Wizards: +1800
Josh Giddey, Thunder: +2000
Defensive Player of the Year
Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies: +500
Jackson took home DPOY honors a season ago after he led the league in blocks for the second year in a row and anchored a top-five defense. The Grizzlies forward finished fifth in voting in 2021-22 and a noticeable bump in both his counting stats and advanced numbers pushed him over the top. Opponents shot an NBA-worst 45.3% against Memphis as a team and Jackson allowed just a 44.4% shooting percentage to players he was guarding, one of the top marks among the league leaders in field goals defended. After acquiring Marcus Smart, the Grizzlies’ starting lineup includes the last two DPOY winners.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: +600
Antetokounmpo is perennially in the mix for not only MVP but also DPOY honors. Last season, though, his counting stats fell to fewer than a block and steal per game and his advanced defensive numbers also took a step back. His teammate Brook Lopez finished runner up to Jackson in the voting but as Lopez enters his age-35 season and with Jrue Holiday now in Boston, more defensive pressure falls to Antetokounmpo, who won this award in 2019-20. The Bucks finished top-five in defensive rating a season ago, which might be tough to repeat unless Antetokounmpo has a resurgent defensive campaign.
Evan Mobley, Cavaliers: +700
Mobley finished third in DPOY voting and led the NBA in defensive win shares in his second season in the league. The Cavaliers were first in defensive rating and held opponents to a league-low 106.9 points per game. Mobley was at the heart of that fierce defense, swatting 1.5 shots per game. He also defended the third-most shots on the year and held opponents to a 47.1% shooting percentage. Mobley returns alongside Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt to secure the paint in Cleveland.
Other DPOY Candidates:
Bam Adebayo, Heat: +800
Anthony Davis, Lakers: +900
Brook Lopez, Bucks: +1600
Joel Embiid, 76ers: +1600
Draymond Green, Warriors: +1600
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Sixth Man of the Year
Isiah Quickley, Knicks: +800
Quickley provided an offensive spark off the bench and, occasionally, as a starter for the Knicks last season. He averaged 14.9 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists across 81 games, 21 of which were starts. Quickley ended up finishing second in Sixth Man of the Year voting to the Celtics’ Malcolm Brogdon, who didn’t record any starts. He returns for his fourth year in New York as one of the team’s most reliable shooters and scorers as Jalen Brunson’s backup.
Malcolm Brogdon, Trail Blazers: +900
Brogdon was shipped to Portland as part of the Holiday trade but it remains to be seen if that will play out the entire season in the Pacific Northwest. As it currently stands, he’s projected to backup Henderson and provide a stabilizing role on a youthful team. After starting for the bulk of his career, Brogdon accepted a bench role in Boston and turned in an efficient season as he averaged 14.9 points on 48/44/87 splits. There have been repeat 6MOY winners in the past, but the award tends to go to a reserve contributor on a playoff team and this version of the Trail Blazers does not project to compete to that degree.
Norman Powell, Clippers: +1200
Powell made a compelling case for Sixth Man of the Year honors in his first full season with the Clippers. He averaged an even 17 points per game, third-most on the team behind Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and shot a hair under 40% from deep. Powell’s role as a scorer off the bench fits the mold of many of L.A.’s past Sixth Man of the Year winners, like Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell before him. Powell headlines a second unit for the Clippers that includes other contributors like Kenyon Martin Jr. and Terrance Mann and unlike Brogdon, he has a role on a team that projects to compete for a playoff spot.
Other 6MOY Candidates:
Bobby Portis, Bucks: +1300
Malik Monk, Kings: +1300
Chris Paul, Warriors: +1400
Caleb Martin, Heat: +1800
Bogdan Bogdanović, Hawks: +2000
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