Jaguars vs. Saints Week 7 Odds, Best Bets and Predictions

New Orleans is favored over Jacksonville on Thursday night at the Caesars Superdome.

Trevor Lawrence’s status is in question for Thursday Night Football against the Saints. The Jaguars quarterback tweaked his knee Sunday in a win over the Colts and is considered day-to-day by coach Doug Pederson.

The spread has already shifted after it opened with Jacksonville (4–2) as a slim favorite on the road over New Orleans (3–3). By Monday afternoon, after Lawrence was listed as a DNP in the team’s estimated practice report, that line had moved to display the Saints as more than a field-goal favorite before it settled at 2.5 in favor of the home team. The total is set at just 39.5 points on SI Sportsbook.

Derek Carr (shoulder/chest) is also currently questionable, though New Orleans’ quarterback was listed as a limited participant in Monday’s estimated practice report.

Jaguars vs. Saints Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Jaguars (+125) | Saints (-152)

Spread: JAX +2.5 (+100) | NO -2.5 (-125)

Total: 39.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)

Game Info: Thursday, Oct. 19, 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video

Jaguars vs. Saints Prediction: 

Best Bet: Under 39.5 Points (-118)

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Jacksonville and New Orleans Key Stats and Fun Facts

• The Saints have been one of the worst NFL teams against the spread with a 1–4–1 record.
• The Jaguars have lost their last four games to the Saints. Their last win in the series was in 2003.
• Trevor Lawrence lost his last two games at the Caesars Superdome, in 2021 to Ohio State in the CFP semifinal and in 2020 against LSU in the championship game.

Travis Etienne has four touchdowns in the Jaguars' last two games :: Jeremy Reper/USA Today network

The Jaguars seem to have found their groove, averaging 28.3 points per game on their current three-game winning streak. Sunday’s 37–20 win over Indianapolis was Jacksonville’s highest-scoring game of the year even though it was outgained by over 100 yards. Four Colts turnovers gave Lawrence and Co. a short field, which they capitalized on time and again.

Whether it’s Lawrence or backup C.J. Beathard under center Thursday at the Superdome, the Jags will be hard-pressed to keep up that scoring pace against Dennis Allen’s defense. The Saints are top 10 in points (16), rushing yards (96.3) and passing yards (182) allowed per game. They’ve only only allowed 20 points once all season. The problem is, their offense has only hit that threshold twice.

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With Carr at quarterback, New Orleans has been a below average offense, ranking bottom 10 in points per game (18.2). In Sunday’s 20–13 loss to the Texans, the Saints only scored one offensive touchdown despite finishing with over 400 yards of offense. Only a handful of teams have been worse at finishing off drives in the red zone.

Luckily for New Orleans, Jacksonville is no world beater on defense. The Jaguars surrender the second-fewest rushing yards per game (75.3) yet they allow the second-most passing yards (270.3). This might mean Chris Olave is in for a big outing while Alvin Kamara could be contained by the Jaguars’ front seven.

The stickiest NFL betting trend this season has been the under in Saints games. It’s hit in all six of their games so far and an over/under in the 30s is practically the norm at this point for New Orleans, so the low total shouldn’t scare bettors off.

Lawrence has never missed a game in his NFL career, so there’s no precedent for what the Jaguars offense will look like without him if he does end up getting ruled out. But even if he suits out, a hobbled Lawrence isn’t likely to light up the Saints defense, especially given Jacksonville’s offensive line woes.

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