Shocking Upsets, Low Scoring Games, Highlight Week 6 NFL Betting

The 49ers and Eagles both lost in Week 6 despite being heavy favorites.

NFL action in Week 6 once again reminded football fans and bettors that winning on the road is never easy. After Sunday, no undefeated teams remain after both Philadelphia (5-1) and San Francisco (5-1) suffered shocking road losses.

The Jets beating the Eagles - without Aaron Rodgers, their best offensive lineman as well as both of their starting cornerbacks, is arguably the biggest upset thus far in the NFL this season. Prior to Sunday, New York had never previously beaten Philadelphia in their franchise history, losing 12 consecutive games.

In Cleveland, PJ Walker and the Browns snapped San Francisco’s 15-game regular-season winning streak (which dated back to last season). The 49ers, who lost both  Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) to injuries during the game, came up just short of pulling out the win when rookie place kicker Jake Moody missed a 41-yard field goal with only eight seconds remaining.

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From a betting perspective, the AFC East leading Dolphins and the first place NFC North Lions own the best against the spread (ATS) marks at 5-1. After suffering both straight-up (SU) and ATS losses, Denver (0-5-1 ATS) and Carolina (0-5-1 ATS) remain the most profitable teams for bettors to “fade” failing to cover the spread in any of their games thus far this season.

Fantasy managers and bettors who prefer to watch high-scoring games were left disappointed when Week 6 games were considerably lower scoring than oddsmakers expected as games finished 12-2-1 (85.7%) to the under.

While the Panthers (0-6) are the only winless team, the Bears (1-5), Broncos (1-5), Cardinals (1-5), Giants (1-5) and Patriots (1-5) are all in the hunt for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Chicago, via owning the Panthers 2024 first round pick, currently hold the top two picks in next April’s draft.

The Jets and Browns shocked the sports world in Week 6 upsetting two previously undefeated teams :: Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports (Jets); Scott Galvin/USA TODAY Sports (Browns)

‘First TD’ Parlay Wager Results Massive Win

A bettor named @Firstbasket_ on ‘X’ placed a $50 wager that three wideouts would score the “First Touchdown” in each of their respective games in Week 6.

The investment involved Los Angeles WR Cooper Kupp (+650) scoring the first touchdown in the Rams-Cardinals game, Raiders WR Jakobi Myers (+1100) being the first to score in the Las Vegas-Patriots game as well as Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (+850) hitting pay dirt first in the Detroit-Tampa matchup.

When all three accomplished the feat, the $50 wager returned an impressive $42,750.

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Video Replay Reversal Enables Tremendous Hit

One lucky bettor at one prominent sportsbook was very happy when video replay reversed a call on the field and ruled that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had broken the goal line on a fourth down rush in the first quarter against the Jets.

The $15 ticket involved Hurts (+480) as well as three wideouts scoring the “First Touchdown” in their respective contests on Sunday.

After Hurts early score against New York, the investment witnessed Raiders WR Jakobi Myers (+1000) and Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (+850) scoring the first touchdowns in the second quarter of both of their games.

When Cooper Kupp (+1000) scored the first touchdown of the game, early in the third quarter, the bet cashed.

The $15 wager, at odds of +454,475, returned a whopping $68,186.

Betting Landscape

In Week 6, bettors witnessed home teams go 10-5 (SU) and 9-6 ATS. Home teams lead 46-45 SU (50.5%), while road teams own the all important profitable 47-41-3 (ATS) (53.4%) mark on the year.

*Editor's Note: International games are not included in home / road stats

Bettors watched favorites post a 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS mark, taking the edge away from underdogs on the season. Favorites now own a 47-43-3 ATS (52.2%) edge.

Games were lower scoring than oddsmakers expected in the sixth week of the season, posting a 12-2-1 mark to the under. On the year, unders now own a small lead with a mark of 56-36-1 (60.8%).

Week 6 Bad Beat

Late Two-Point Safety Hands Patriots' Bettors Bad Beat

New England, who were 3-point road underdogs, were trailing the Raiders 19-17, with 1:51 remaining in the game. Faced with a 3rd and 15 from their own four yard line, Mac Jones dropped back to pass. Raiders star defensive end Max Crosby broke through the Patriots offensive line and sacked Jones in the end zone. The two-point play resulted in a 21-17 Las Vegas win and cover, burning bettors who backed Bill Belichick in the role of a road underdog.

MAXX CROSBY SAFETY 🙏

📺: #NEvsLV on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/pW4ERJVtdw

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023

Sportsbook Earn Vital Decisions Over Public Bettors

69% of money on Chicago (+3)

• Despite not having Justin Jefferson, the Vikings earned a 19-13 road win.

71% of money on San Francisco (-9.5)

• The Browns upset the 49ers 19-17, handing SF their first loss of the season.

76% on of LAR/ARZ Over (47.5)

• The Rams and Cardinals, the highest total of Week 6, came up well short in a 26-9 Rams win.

77% of money on Bills (-15.5)

• Buffalo, the biggest favorites in any game this season, escaped with a 14-9 over the Giants.

66% of money on Eagles (-6.5)

• The Eagles suffered their first loss of the year, falling to the Jets 20-14.

SURVIVOR CONTEST 

Recap

In Week 6, Survivor Pool contestants at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas strongly selected the Rams (-7) over the Cardinals, Miami (-13.5) over Carolina and Buffalo (-15.5) over the Giants.

The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.

In Week 6 of the NFL season, the Rams, Dolphins and Bills incredibly made up 87.4% of the selections in the $9.3 million contest.

While all three of the biggest favorites of the week won on Sunday, shocking losses by two other sizable favorites: Eagles (-7) and 49ers (-9.5), painfully knocked out entrants.

Raheem Mostert scored three touchdowns in Miami's 42-21 win over Carolina at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday :: Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

Look-Ahead

Here are three games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 7.

Seattle (-7.5) vs Arizona

Buffalo (-9.5) at New England

San Francisco (-7) at Minnesota

Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.