College Football Week 8 Predictions and Best Bets

Picks for a top-10 battle between Penn State and Ohio State and an SEC showdown between Tennessee and Alabama.

Kyle Wood | Oct 19, 2023

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College football is beginning to heat up as the 2023 season passes its halfway point.

There was quite a bit of movement in the top 10 last week after Washington’s win over Oregon and this week’s schedule could see a similar shakeup. The biggest game of the week is taking place in Columbus, where No. 3 Ohio State hosts No. 7 Penn State in a pivotal Big Ten East battle. And later in the afternoon, No. 11 Alabama takes on No. 17 Tennessee in Tuscaloosa as it looks to stay undefeated in SEC play.

There are also two other top-25 matchups to monitor: No. 16 Duke plays No. 4 Florida State and No. 14 Utah is up against No. 18 USC, which is coming off an embarrassing loss to Notre Dame.

Penn State-Ohio State and Tennessee-Alabama, have our attention this week.

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No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. — Adam Cairns/USA TODAY Network

This upcoming game between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions could decide which team represents the Big Ten East in Indianapolis a few months from now, though both still must play No. 2 Michigan. Ohio State (6–0, 3–0 Big Ten) has defeated Penn State (6–0, 3–0) six years in a row and its last loss in the series in Columbus came in 2011. Recent one-sided history aside, James Franklin’s squad has a real shot at pulling off the upset against Ryan Day in the Horseshoe on Saturday.

Only the Wolverines allow fewer points than the Nittany Lions, who surrender just eight per game. Anchored by cornerback Kalen King, PSU also ranks first in the FBS in total yards (193.7) and passing yards (121.1) allowed per game and third in rushing yards (72.5). This defense has pitched a pair of shutouts but has yet to be truly challenged, having played the 112th-hardest schedule, per ESPN.

The Buckeyes will be the first true test. OSU ranks 20th nationally in scoring average at 36 points per game and quarterback Kyle McCord has 11 touchdown passes to just one interception. McCord’s favorite target, Marvin Harrison Jr., already has over 600 receiving yards and just recorded his fourth 100-yard game of the season. However, Ohio State’s leading rusher, Treyveon Henderson, missed the last two games with an undisclosed injury and receiver Emeka Egbuka was out last week against Purdue.

In their absence, the Buckeyes still scored 41 points, their second-most all season, and racked up nearly 500 yards of offense. Their status for Saturday is currently unknown, as is that of cornerback Denzel Burke, who exited early against the Boilermakers and did not return.

Ohio State is just behind Penn State in points allowed (9.7) and it’s done so against a tougher schedule, that includes wins over then-No. 9 Notre Dame and Maryland. The Buckeyes will be tasked with slowing down a Drew Allar-led offense that’s tied with No. 5 Washington for the fifth-highest scoring unit in the country at 44.3 points per game.

Allar, a true sophomore, has impressed with 12 passing touchdowns and no interceptions but running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton deserve plenty of credit as the Nittany Lions average over 200 rushing yards per game. The Nittany Lions have put up at least 30 points in every game this year and scored 63 twice.

Penn State, which has been perfect against the spread this season, is an underdog for the first time since it last played Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions have covered more often than not in this matchup as of late. They’re 4–1 against the number over the last five years against OSU and Saturday’s spread is tied for the tightest during that time frame.

Franklin’s teams have historically covered at a high rate during his decade in State College. Count on them to keep it close in Columbus.

Best Bet: Penn State +4.5 (-110)

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No. 17 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Alabama

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe looks to pass during a game against Middle Tennessee on Sept. 2, 2023. — Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY Sports

In one of the wildest football games of last season, the Volunteers upset the Crimson Tide, 52–49, for the first time in 15 years. The stars of those high-octane offenses moved on to NFL careers, leaving behind two units that are not on par with last year’s production.

Tennessee (5–1, 2–1 SEC) heads to Bryant-Denny Stadium having won three in a row. However, in its only true road game, Josh Heupel’s squad fell to Florida, 29–16. The Vols have relied heavily on their running game as opposed to the arm of quarterback Joe Milton. Jaylen Wright leads the No. 6 rushing offense in the country (231.3 yards per game) with 571 yards on the season. That includes 136 to lead the team in a 20–13 win over Texas A&M last week.

Few teams have been able to run on Alabama (6–1, 4–0 SEC). Even Texas, which handed the Tide its only loss of the season, struggled on the ground. It’s taken time for this team to settle in and it’s had quite a few close calls, but one thing it can hang its hat on is defense. Nick Saban’s team is a top-25 unit against the run (104.4) and pass (187.1) and ranks 12th nationally in points allowed per game (16). In a hostile environment, Tennessee will have a much harder time moving the ball than it did in routs of South Carolina, UTSA and UVA at home.

Alabama’s offense is also trending in the right direction after a slow start to the season. In SEC play, quarterback Jalen Milroe has nine total touchdowns to two interceptions and he threw for a career-high 321 yards two weeks ago against the Aggies. Jermaine Burton accounted for almost 200 of those yards and he’s emerged as a reliable target for the sophomore signal-caller.

Tennessee has a similarly stout defense, although it has benefited from playing a lighter schedule to date — this is the Volunteers’ first game against a top-25 team this season and the third for the Tide. Regardless, Tennessee also has a top-20 scoring defense, which allows just 17 points per game, and it has succeeded in limiting its opponents’ output on the ground and through the air.

Compared to last year’s shootout, defense will decide this matchup. That much is clear from the modest over/under of 48.5 points compared to 68 a season ago, which these teams smashed when they combined for 101. Only one of Alabama’s conference games would have gone over this total and the same goes for Tennessee, which has historically not fared well in Tuscaloosa and already put up a dud on the road.

Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-110)

College Football Betting Record: 13–3

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Published Oct 19, 2023

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.