NFL Week 7 Five Best Over/Under Bets

It’s time to recognize that we’re seeing more low-scoring games than we’ve seen in years.

As we approach the halfway mark of the NFL season, it’s time to make adjustments with my over/under total bets. First change: Make a lot more under bets.

Last week, I went 2–0 with under bets and 0–3 with over bets. That doesn’t come as a surprise with how dominant defenses were in Week 6. Only two teams cracked 30 points (Dolphins, Jaguars), and four teams were held to single digits (Broncos, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Giants).

Besides the Dolphins, most offenses have struggled to score points this season. That could explain why nine games on the Week 7 schedule have a total line under 44 points, according to SI Sportsbook.

I might have gotten carried away, but I went heavy with under bets this week. ​​Here are the five best over/under bets for NFL Week 7 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).

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1. Lions (5–1) at Ravens (4–2)

Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY Sports

• Over/Under: 41.5
• Prediction: Over

This will be my lone over bet for the week because I trust Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff to generate enough points for their respective teams in what should be a thrilling game. It might even go to overtime, but regardless, this total line is too low for two of the best teams in the league. The Lions will be looking to push the ball downfield without running back David Montgomery, who’s sidelined with injured ribs. Speedy wideout Jameson Williams quickly made an impact in his season debut last week, recording a 45-yard touchdown vs. the Buccaneers. I do have concerns about the Ravens delivering a sluggish performance after playing in London last week. But, again, this intriguing matchup doesn’t need to be a high-scoring affair with a low total line. 

2. Falcons (3–3) at Buccaneers (3–2)

• Over/Under: 38.5
• Prediction: Under

Taking the under was a no-brainer for a matchup between two good defenses and two subpar offenses. But I shouldn’t get too confident, with how poorly Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has played. The Buccaneers might start a few drives with short fields if Ridder continues to throw interceptions—he had three vs. the Commanders last week. The Falcons are averaging 16.5 points per game and the Buccaneers are allowing 17.6 points per game. As for the Buccaneers' offense (18 points per game), they’re coming off a dreadful performance in the 20–6 loss to the Lions. The Falcons’ defense isn’t as good as the Lions’ defense, but they’ve been productive for most of the season. Atlanta, which is allowing 20 points per game, entered Week 7 ranked fourth in total yards, fourth in passing yards and 11th in rushing yards. The Falcons have allowed three of their opponents to crack 20 points, but they have made life difficult for all the offenses they have faced this season. 

3. Raiders (3–3) at Bears (1–5)

• Over/Under: 37.5
• Prediction: Under

The Raiders’ defense has surprisingly played well for most of the season. Expect that trend to continue against the struggling Bears, who might be forced to start undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent if Justin Fields’s hand injury prevents him from playing Sunday. Last week, the Raiders’ defense contained Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense, which many teams have done this season. But the Raiders’ defense also played well vs. the Chargers and Packers in the prior two games. It might be a long day for Bagent against Maxx Crosby & Co. On the other side, the Bears have one of the worst defenses in the league, but the Raiders have struggled to score points and might be without Jimmy Garoppolo, who’s dealing with a back injury. The Raiders might be forced to start rookie Aidan O’Connell or Brian Hoyer. 

4. Browns (3–2) at Colts (3–3)

Sam Greene/USA TODAY Network

• Over/Under: 39.5
• Prediction: Under

I might regret taking three under bets with the total line under 40 points. But this will probably be another matchup featuring backup quarterbacks. Cleveland’s PJ Walker and Indianapolis’ Gardner Minshew will likely see constant pressure vs. two of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Browns’ defense gained the spotlight last week for containing the 49ers’ mighty offense during their upset win. With Myles Garrett, the Browns have a productive defensive front, but they might have the best defense overall. Cleveland entered Week 7 first in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Minshew is a standout backup quarterback, but the Colts don’t have the weapons to break through the Browns’ secondary—Cleveland hasn’t allowed more than 200 passing yards in a game this season. The Colts’ defense hasn’t been as good as the Browns’ defense, but they have plenty of playmakers to contain a subpar Browns’ offense without running back Nick Chubb. 

5. Cardinals (1–5) at Seahawks (3–2)

• Over/Under: 44.5
• Prediction: Under

After a competitive first month to the season, the Cardinals are starting to fade with three consecutive losses of 14 points or more. To make matters worse, the Cardinals struggled last week in their first game without running back James Conner, who’s on injured reserve. Arizona only managed nine points and were shutout in the second half during the loss to the Rams. The Seahawks’ run defense has improved this season, only allowing 79.2 rushing yards per game. Seattle also has had a consistent pass rush, and a productive secondary with cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen. The Seahawks’ offense is capable of generating 30 points on a weekly basis, but quarterback Geno Smith has had a few rocky performances this season. 

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