College Football Week 9 Predictions and Best Bets

Picks for a Pac-12 battle between Oregon and Utah and a key ACC contest between Duke and Louisville.

Kyle Wood | Oct 26, 2023

College Football Week 9 Predictions and Best Bets /

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There are only two top-25 matchups scheduled for Saturday and both are key conference games.

In the Pac-12, No. 8 Oregon takes on No. 13 Utah at Rice-Eccles Stadium where the Utes are a tough team to beat. And in the ACC, No. 20 Duke is on the road at No. 18 Louisville and both teams are looking to right the ship after lopsided losses.

Of course, there’s a few other big matchups to watch this weekend, like the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party between Florida and No. 1 Georgia. No. 6 Oklahoma is also on the road at Kansas after escaping an upset last week and No. 3 Ohio State looks to stay undefeated as it travels West to Wisconsin.

Oregon-Utah and Duke-Louisville are in the spotlight this week.

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No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 13 Utah

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix :: Ben Lonergan/USA TODAY Network

Either the Ducks or Utes have won the Pac-12 championship each of the past four seasons and the two met twice in the title game. But this year, both teams have fallen behind No. 5 Washington, which is still unbeaten with a win over Oregon (6–1, 3–1 Pac-12) on its resume. Utah (6–1, 3–1 Pac-12) still has a home date with the Huskies, but it can’t overlook the challenge at hand.

The Utes have won 18 in a row at Rice-Eccles Stadium, a streak that dates back to the 2020 season. They moved up in the AP poll last week after a 34–32 road win against then-No. 18 USC. Utah’s defense has emerged as one of the best in the FBS and it held reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams to zero passing touchdowns for the first time this season. The Utes allow just 15 points per game, boast a top-five rushing defense and are among the FBS leaders in sacks, largely thanks to Jonah Elliss.

The Ducks could present a matchup problem for Utah as they are one of the best rushing teams in the country and quarterback Bo Nix has hardly been sacked this season. Oregon was quick to bounce back from its loss to Washington with a 38–24 win over Washington State. Bucky Irving and Jordan James both went over 100 yards on the ground and Nix added three total touchdowns.

Despite questions at quarterback, Utah has cobbled together a competent offense. Cam Rising was ruled out for the rest of the season, which opens the door for Bryson Barnes to take the reins under center. The junior totaled four touchdowns in the upset over the Trojans and the offense has scored 30-plus points in his last two starts since he took over for Nate Johnson in a 21–7 loss to Oregon State.

That scoring bump coincided with safety Sione Vaki getting involved with the offense. He has four touchdowns and 370 total yards in the last two games, providing a spark to a unit that was in need of one.

Oregon’s defense is roughly on par with Utah’s, though it allowed over 400 yards and a season-high 36 points to Washington and 24 points and a season-high 495 yards to Washington State in the last two weeks. The Ducks are also tied with the Utes with 25 sacks on the season.

This total is the second-highest of the year for Utah, but the over has hit in both games that Barnes has started after five straight unders to start the season. As for Oregon, this is its first time with an over/under in the 40s. The over has hit in each of the Ducks’ last two games, which had totals in the 60s, and the Utes just lost linebacker Lander Barton, one of their leading tacklers and top defensive playmakers, for the season.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 (-120)

No. 20 Duke vs. No. 18 Louisville

Duke quarterback Riley Leonard :: Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Blue Devils are 0–3 all-time against the Cardinals. Of course, these are two teams better known for their prowess on the basketball court than on the gridiron. But this is a key game between two of the top teams in the ACC, both of whom are vying for a trip to Charlotte in December for the ACC title game.

Duke (5–2, 3–1 ACC) and Louisville (6–1, 3–1 ACC) both are coming off losses by almost identical scores. The difference is the Blue Devils fell to No. 4 Florida State, 38–20, as a two-touchdown underdog on the road while the Cardinals lost to Pitt, 38–21, as a seven-point road favorite. Jeff Brohm’s team had a week off to regroup and prepare for Duke, which has split its two games outside of Durham, N.C.

Quarterback Riley Leonard’s status is up in the air for Saturday’s game after he re-injured his ankle against the Seminoles. Leonard, who went down late in the Notre Dame game Sep. 30 and hadn’t played since, left again in the third quarter with the Blue Devils ahead, 20–17. Freshman Henry Belin IV replaced Leonard and he started in a 24–3 win over N.C. State, but he’s completing just 50% of his passes so far this season.

Duke has to stay sharp on defense and move the ball on the ground against Louisville to keep things close, with or without Leonard. Running on the Cardinals is easier said than done. They’re one of 16 FBS teams that allow less than 100 rushing yards per game and even in their loss to the Panthers they surrendered just 2.7 yards per carry. Jordan Waters, Jacquez Moore and Leonard (when healthy) lead a Blue Devils rushing attack that’s good for almost 200 yards per game.

Louisville has two standout playmakers to account for in Jawhar Jordan and Jamari Thrash. Both players are second in the ACC in rushing yards and receiving yards, respectively, though Jordan’s status is also in question for Saturday. Jack Plummer quarterbacks an explosive offense, but not without committing turnovers. His eight interceptions are tied for the sixth-most nationally.

On defense, Duke has the clear edge, as it allows just 13.9 points per game, the sixth-fewest in the country. The Blue Devils aren’t great against the run, which bodes well for Jordan, but are stingy against the pass. The Cardinals allow just over 20 points per game, a top-20 mark nationally, and points might be hard to come by if Leonard is ruled out or limited. But a low-scoring game favors Duke, the better running team with a stronger defense that isn’t as susceptible to turnovers.

Louisville is just 2–3–1 against the spread as a favorite but is undefeated at home with a win over Notre Dame. The Blue Devils are 1–2 against the spread as an underdog but they did score a season-opening upset win against Clemson. It remains to be seen if Duke can win outside North Carolina against teams not named UConn, so take the points rather than picking the upset outright.

Best Bet: Duke +4.5 (-120)

College Football Betting Record: 13–5

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Published Oct 26, 2023

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.