NFL Week 9 Five Best Over/Under Bets

Don’t count on a high-scoring shootout in the Bills-Bengals rivalry.

With so many intriguing NFL games on the Week 9 slate, I nearly fell into the trap of favoring over bets this week.

Sure, a few of them will likely turn into shootouts, such as Dolphins vs. Chiefs in Germany. But Bengals vs. Bills could easily turn into a slow, physical battle between two evenly matched teams.

After another week of finishing 3–2, I’m going to stick to my method of more under bets, especially with scoring being down this season.

I don’t like finishing 3–2, which has been the case the past two weeks, but I’m still on the winning side. This might finally be the week I go a perfect 5-for-5—or at least 4–1.

Here are the five best over/under bets this week (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).

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1. Dolphins (6–2) vs. Chiefs (6–2)

Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

• Over/Under: 50.5
• Prediction: Over

Expect plenty of scoring for Tyreek Hill’s first game against the Chiefs. It’s concerning, however, that the Dolphins were unable to score more than 20 points in their losses against the Bills and Eagles—Miami’s two toughest opponents of the season. The Chiefs might have a better defense than those two teams (Kansas City is allowing 16.1 points per game). But those were true road games. The Dolphins are the road team vs. Hill’s former team, but the game is taking place in Germany. Count on Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa to put on a show for the fans in Frankfurt. Also, the Dolphins are in need of an impressive performance after flat performances vs. the Bills and Eagles. At some point, the Dolphins will score touchdowns against a team with a winning record.

2. Bears (2–6) at Saints (4–4)

• Over/Under: 40.5
• Prediction: Over

I probably wouldn’t have said this two weeks ago, but I trust the Saints here to score at least 30 points at home against a poor Bears’ defense. Last week, the Saints delivered their best offensive performance after dropping 37 points and 511 yards in the victory over the Colts. New Orleans also scored 24 points vs. a tough Jaguars’ defense in Week 7. Derek Carr finally has this Saints’ offense clicking, and they should have success against the Bears, who allowed 30 points to the Chargers last week. I do have my doubts about the Bears doing their part for this over bet to hit, but they just need 10 to 14 points, with the Saints probably doing the heavy lifting.

3. Commanders (3–5) at Patriots (2–6)

• Over/Under: 40.5
• Prediction: Under

The Commanders aren’t playing the Eagles, so expect them to struggle offensively again. The Commanders averaged 31 points in their two games with the Eagles this season. Washington only averaged 18.1 points in their six other games. It’s strange, but Washington is familiar with its NFC East foe, and Philadelphia’s secondary has struggled this season. Expect Bill Belichick to confuse Commanders quarterback Sam Howell with his defensive game plan. The Patriots defense has disappointed this season, partly because of injuries, but they still have many productive playmakers. As for the Patriots’ offense, Mac Jones’s struggles have been well documented. Jones could have success against a Commanders defense that will be without Montez Sweat and Chase Young for the first time, but it’s tough seeing this game turn into a shootout with two subpar offenses.

4. Colts (3–5) at Panthers (1–6)

• Over/Under: 43.5
• Prediction: Under

Generating points hasn’t been the issue for the Colts during their three-game losing streak—Indianapolis scored 38 points vs. Cleveland and 27 points vs. New Orleans the past two weeks. But those were home games. Now the fading Colts have to travel to face the Panthers, who held the Texans to 13 points last week in their first win of the season. Bryce Young and the Panthers offense showed improvements against Houston but they only managed 15 points and 224 yards. Carolina hasn’t scored more than 27 points in a game this season. Young and wide receiver Adam Thielen could have success against a struggling Colts’ secondary, but it probably won’t lead to many touchdowns.

5. Bills (5–3) at Bengals (4–3)

Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Sports

• Over/Under: 48.5
• Prediction: Under

This prime-time showdown between the Bills and Bengals might have a playoff-like atmosphere. Those types of games tend to be low-scoring, especially when the teams are evenly matched. The Bengals are surging and could light up the Bills’ short-handed defense. But Buffalo recently traded for cornerback Rasul Douglas, which should help with the daunting task of covering Bengals wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Also, the Bills will likely look to control the clock to not allow Joe Burrow to gain a rhythm. The Bills’ offense played well against the Buccaneers, but they have been inconsistent for most of the season. They tend to avoid playing in high-scoring affairs besides that one game against the Dolphins in Week 4. 

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