College Football Week 11 Predictions and Best Bets

Picks for a pair of top-10 matchups between Ole Miss and Georgia in the SEC and Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten.

Kyle Wood | Nov 9, 2023

College Football Week 11 Predictions and Best Bets /

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The top eight teams in the College Football Playoff rankings remained unchanged Tuesday when the new rankings were released. There figures to be more movement next week with key conference bouts between top-10 teams on Saturday’s slate.

No. 3 Michigan and No. 10 Penn State kick things off at noon in a pivotal Big Ten bout and later in the day No. 9 Ole Miss will try to slay the giant that is No. 1 Georgia in an SEC showdown. There’s a handful of other key games, including No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington and No. 13 Tennessee at No. 14 Missouri, but all eyes will be on University Park, PA, and Athens, GA, come Saturday.

Let’s get into the games of the week: Ole Miss-Georgia and Michigan-Penn State.

No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Georgia

University of Georgia quarterback Carson Beck — Joshua L. Jones/USA TODAY Sports

It’s been more than a decade since the Rebels played the Bulldogs between the hedges. Their showdown Saturday at Sanford Stadium has the potential to send the college football world careening further toward chaos with the regular season winding down and the playoff race heating up.

Ole Miss (8–1, 5–1 SEC) hasn’t lost since a late September trip to Tuscaloosa. A 24–10 loss to the Crimson Tide is the only blemish on the Rebels’ resume. However, they not only have to win out but also need Alabama to lose out to win the West — an unlikely scenario. Georgia (9–0, 6–0 SEC) last lost two years ago in the SEC title game and Kirby Smart’s team is barreling toward another trip to Atlanta. A Bulldogs win Saturday would lock up the division title.

As for the actual matchup, Ole Miss has the offensive firepower on paper to hang with the No. 1 team in the nation. The Rebels rank 14th in points per game (38.8), just a few spots behind the Bulldogs (39.3). Running back Quinshon Judkins has rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown in three straight games and receiver Tre Harris had a career-high 213 receiving yards in a 38–35 win over Texas A&M last week. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is at the heart of that unit and he’s a threat on the ground as well.

Where things might fall apart for Ole Miss is on defense. The Aggies just hung 35 on the Rebels in Oxford and A&M is nowhere near UGA’s level on offense. Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck is top 10 in passing yards and the machine kept churning the last two weeks in wins over Florida and Missouri without star tight end Brock Bowers, who could potentially be back this week. Receiver Ladd McConkey led the team in receiving against the Gators and Tigers and running back Daijun Edwards kept the chains moving on the ground.

UGA backs up its offense with an exceptional defense that allows an SEC-best 15.4 points per game. For what it’s worth, Vanderbilt, Florida and Missouri each scored 20-plus in the last three weeks against this defense, which only gave up 20-plus twice in its first six games. It’s especially hard to run on this unit as it gives up just 100 rushing yards on average.

The Bulldogs have been one of the worst teams to bet on all year with a 2–6–1 mark against the spread. Though this is the fewest points they’ve been favored by all season, there’s more value in targeting the total in this game. The under hit last week against the Tigers but before that the over had hit in five straight for UGA. And while the under has hit more often than not for Ole Miss, the total is typically in the 60s when the Rebels are on the field. These two offenses — both of which average close to 40 points per game — should be able to combine for more than 60.

Best Bet: Over 58.5 (-105)

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No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 10 Penn State

J.J. McCarthy celebrates a touchdown against Indiana scored by running back Blake Corum — Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network

Where to begin… The firestorm around the Wolverines has only grown in recent weeks since the sign-stealing scandal came to light. Now there’s word of a potential suspension being handed out to coach Jim Harbaugh by the league office with the biggest game of Michigan’s season to date just a few days away.

How about we talk about the game at hand? The Wolverines (9–0, 6–0 Big Ten) have pummeled their way through Big Ten play. Purdue was the latest victim as the Boilermakers lost 41–13 Saturday in Ann Arbor. Incredibly, that was the most points Michigan’s No. 1 defense surrendered all year. Opponents are averaging just 6.7 points and 231.4 yards per game, both FBS lows.

The Wolverines’ offense is a machine as well. Running back Blake Corum has scored in every game and his 16 rushing touchdowns lead the country. J.J. McCarthy is having an exceptional season and receiver Roman Wilson just had his best game of the year against Purdue. Michigan is one of seven teams with a scoring average in the 40s (40.7 points per game) and it’s been well over a month since it was held under that mark.

Penn State (8–1, 5–1 Big Ten) needs a win on Saturday to keep its hopes of a Big Ten title game appearance alive. The Nittany Lions played the Buckeyes tight in a 20–12 loss in late October and beat Indiana and Maryland in the two games since. Penn State is just behind Michigan in points per game (40.2) and two spots behind in points allowed (11.9) — it’s also done so against a tougher schedule to date and defensive end Chop Robinson could be back for the first time in almost a month.

The Nittany Lions are 5–0 at home, including a 31–0 win over then-No. 24 Iowa back in September. Quarterback Drew Allar has largely played mistake-free football with 20 passing touchdowns and just one interception on the season. His go-to target is receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who leads the team in receptions and receiving yards by a wide margin. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton spearhead Penn State’s rushing attack, which accounts for more than 177 yards on the ground.

Where James Franklin's team really sets itself apart is on defense, specifically in the turnover department. The Nittany Lions have forced 20 turnovers (10 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries), which is tied for the second-most nationally. And with an offense that takes care of the ball so well, Penn State leads the country in turnover margin (+16). The Wolverines are also adept at causing turnovers with 15 and have only lost nine. McCarthy has three interceptions and they were all in the same game against Bowling Green back in September.

Michigan (4–4–1) has not covered the spread as often as Penn State (7–2). But this is by far the fewest points this team has given all season. Previously, the Wolverines’ tightest spread was 17.5 points in their favor at Nebraska, which they covered with ease. Over the last month, this team has performed much better against the number after failing to cover three lines of 30-plus points in September.

As for the Nittany Lions, they’ve only covered once in their last three. They failed to do so as four-point underdogs against Ohio State and again the following week as a 31-point favorite against Indiana. And as good as this team has been against the number under Franklin, that hasn’t always been the case as an underdog, including in its last two games against Michigan.

Best Bet: Michigan -4.5 (-110)

College Football Betting Record: 15–7

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Published Nov 9, 2023

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.