Broncos and Bills Player Prop Predictions and Best Bets for Monday Night Football

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the rest of the Bills' playmakers have a great matchup against a weak Denver defense in Week 10.

Author:
Bill Enright
Publish date:
Nov 12, 2023

In this story:

Buffalo Bills

Denver Broncos

We close out Week 10 action with a primetime matchup in Buffalo on Monday night. The Bills are trying to get back on top of the AFC East while the Broncos are trying to get out of the bottom in the AFC West.

The oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook list Buffalo (5-4) as favored 7.5 point favorites over the Broncos (3-5). The point total of 47.5 is fairly high compared to other matchups in Week 10. We have a full betting breakdown for the point spread and Over/Under published on SI Betting but for this article, we’ll focus on player props.

Here are some of the key statistical mismatches we are focusing on that helped guide us to our player prop predictions:

Bills' passing attack ranks 5th in yards per pass (7.3). Broncos defense ranks 32nd (7.6).

Bills' offense ranks 5th in points per game (26.7). Broncos defense ranks 32nd (28.3).

Bills' offense ranks 3rd in yards per play (5.9). Broncos defense ranks 32nd (6.3).

Bills' offense ranks 3rd in touchdowns per game (3.2). Broncos defense ranks 31st (3.1)

Now, let's get to some props!

Broncos and Bills Anytime Touchdown Prop Predictions

Best Bet: Gabriel Davis +120

Best Bet: Dalton Kincaid +150

Best Bet: Courtland Sutton +175

Let’s start with the Broncos wide receiver’s ability to find the endzone. Sutton has six touchdowns this season, tied for 3^rd most with A.J. Brown. Denver’s pass catch playmaker has scored in each of his last three games and hit paydirt in five of his last six. The ROI on Sutton at +175 is well worth the risk.

Now for Buffalo, we’ll be banking on a few Josh Allen’s trends when it comes to passing touchdowns and piggy-backing off them for anytime touchdown props. Our prediction/expectation is Josh Allen exceeds his passing touchdown prop (more on this in a bit). The odds on Stefon Diggs Anytime TD at -163 is just north worth the investment, no matter how likely the result. Instead we’ll pivot to Allen’s next best options in the passing attack. Gabe Davis might be the league’s biggest boom or bust player in the league. He already has five touchdowns this year-but hasn’t score more than one touchdown in a game, which means he also has four games without a score. And in this scoreless outings, he’s finished with zero, one, three, and two catches. In other words, it’s feast or famine with Davis and we’re banking on a major meal on Monday Night. As for Kincaid, ever since Dawson Knox went down with a wrist injury, the rookie has been peppered with targets. In fact, since Week 6 Kincaid has 26 targets and is tied for third among all tight ends for targets inside the red-zone.

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Josh Allen Passing Touchdown Props Predictions

Josh Allen pulls his arm back to throw the ball — Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Remember when we mentioned we are piggy backing off some Josh Allen passing trends? Well, let’s take a look at some of these incredible stats for the Bills quarterback:

Allen has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in:

-five straight games when facing a bottom 10 scoring defense.

-eight straight games when favored by at least a touchdown.

-five straight games at home.

-five straight games as a favorite.

-8 of his last 9 games when facing an opponent with a losing record.

Broncos and Bills Receiving Yards Prop Predictions

Best Bet: Javonte Williams Under 16.5 (-120)

Best Bet: Stefon Diggs Over 85.5 (-125)

With the emergence of Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine catching passes out of the Denver backfield, Javonte Williams’ usage in that area has been limited. Perine has 16 or more receiving yards in five straight games while Perine has gone under 16 receiving yards in nine of his last 10! In fact, the 16.5 threshold is nearly double his weekly average of 8.9.

As for Stefon Diggs, we already ranted about Josh Allen’s passing success against weak opponents and we have to get in on some action for Allen’s top playmaker. Diggs has only gone over this number once in the last three games but we’re banking on Buffalo trying to make a big statement on offense in front of their home crowd and a national audience on Monday Night Football.

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