Primetime Unders, Favorites Winning, Continue To Dominate NFL Sports Betting Landscape

Betting on underdogs was a fool's errand in Week 10, as favorites dominated for the third straight week.

Through 10 weeks of NFL action, two major trends continue to dominate the sports betting landscape: primetime unders cashing at an absurd 78.1% clip as well as favorites winning straight-up at a highly profitable 65.3% rate.

For the third consecutive week, bettors witnessed favorites dominate the slate with a 10-4 straight-up (SU) mark, while posting a slightly lucrative 7-6-1 against the spread (ATS) record. Overall, thanks to a massive run by favorites over the last month, the higher power-ranked teams by oddsmakers possess an amazing 98-52 SU (65.3%) record on the year.

Following the Jets-Raiders snooze-fest on Sunday Night Football and the Bills-Broncos game staying just under the posted total by one point on Monday night, primetime unders now owning an eye-popping 25-7 mark (78.1%). To put this in perspective, if a bettor were to blindly wager $100 on every primetime game this season they would find a profit of $1,589. Upon a deeper dive, we find that this lucrative trend began last season and has carried over into 2023, with unders on games played under the national lights sitting at 65-29 (69.1%).

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens witnessed their four-game winning streak come to a shocking end after suffering a 33-31 loss to the Browns as 5.5-point home favorites. Baltimore, who owns the NFL’s best point differential (+113), surrendered the most points they have allowed this season after blowing a 31-17 fourth quarter lead.

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The Vikings are the NFL’s hottest team after winning their fifth consecutive SU and ATS win of the season after beating Tampa Bay 20-6. Minnesota, who are now being led by Josh Dobbs under center, sport a very lucrative 6-3-1 ATS mark on the season.

Detroit, improved to 7-2 on the year, after outlasting the Chargers 41-38 in a high-scoring affair in Week 10. Jared Goff and the Lions own the NFL’s best record against the number thus far this season at 7-2 ATS (77.8%).

Back-to-back game-winning drives for @CJ7STROUD and the @HoustonTexans! pic.twitter.com/UO9PtFQkD6

— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2023

$500K SGP Results In Massive Seven-Figure Hit

One lucky bettor turned a $500,00 Same-Game-Parlay in the Houston-Cincinnati  showdown into a massive lucrative cash on Sunday.

The investment involved strong belief in CJ Stroud and the Texans going into Paycor Stadium and upsetting Joe Burrow and the red-hot Bengals.

The wager included the Texans on the money line (+210) as well as the contest going over the posted game total of 45.5 points. The bettor also believed that Devin Singletary would find success on the ground eclipsing 51.5 rushing yards as well as scoring at least one touchdown (+155). 

After the veteran back scored and gained 150 rushing yards on the ground, the wager needed scoring late in the game. When the two clubs combined for 13 points in the final 3 minutes of the game, the total soared past the betting demand with the Texans emerging with a 30-27 win. The $500,000 wager returned $5.5 million in profit.

Six-Player “Alternative-Market” Player Prop Parlay Results In Amazing Win

One bettor named @bmcclatchy13 on Instagram placed a $100 same-game parlay wager on six different players exceeding their ‘alternative’ projection markets.

The investment involved Ja’Marr Chase 100-plus receiving yards (+175), Christian McCaffrey 100-plus rushing-receiving yards (-135), CeeDee Lamb 100-plus receiving yards (+190), T.J. Hockenson 50-plus receiving yards (-115), Amon-Ra St. Brown 100-plus receiving yards (+135) and Keenan Allen 100-plus receiving yards (+165)

The $100 wager at odds of +16121 returned an amazing $16,221.

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Betting Landscape

In Week 10, bettors witnessed home teams go 8-5 (SU) and 7-6-1 ATS. Home teams own a 81-64 SU (55.9%) edge, as well as a slight ATS advantage at 73-67-5 (ATS) (52.1%) on the season.

*Editor's Note: Five International games are not included in home / road stats.

Bettors watched favorites post both a 10-4 SU and 7-6-1 ATS mark, leaving favorites with a 75-70-5 ATS (51.7%) edge on the year.

Games were higher scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 8-6 mark to the over on the week. On the year, unders own a sizable lead with a mark of 89-60-1 (59.7%).

Bad Beat

Sunday Night Football 'Anytime Touchdown' Misery

One bettor named @michael_mctigue on Instagram endured two bad beats on Sunday Night Football.

The bettor needed Jets star offensive weapons Garrett Wilson (+185) and Breece Hall (+185) to score touchdowns against the Raiders - as the final leg - on two separate parlay wagers. 

In the second quarter, Hall ran in for a three yard touchdown. However, tight end C.J. Uzomah was called for holding Maxx Crosby nullifying the score.

On the final play of the game, Zach Wilson launched a Hail Mary pass down the near sideline. As Wilson went up for the ball, teammate Tyler Conklin hit the pass preventing the ball from reaching the star wideout's hands.

ah man Tyler Conklin actually swatted that ball away from Garrett Wilson while trying to haul it in, brutal pic.twitter.com/ni0JyRUAct

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 13, 2023

Two horrible bad beats prevented turning two $250 five-player 'Anytime Touchdown' wagers into over $40,000 in winnings.

Pain.

Sportsbook Earn Vital Decisions Over Public Bettors

66% of money on Baltimore (-6.5)

• The Browns upset the Ravens with a thrilling 33-31 win.

62% of money on Bengals (-5.5)

• CJ Stroud and the Texans upset Joe Burrow and the Bengals 30-27.

78% of money on Saints (-3)

• The Josh Dobbs-led Vikings were too much for Derek Carr and the Saints, handing New Orleans a 27-19 road loss.

73% of money on Seattle (-6)

• Despite earning a 29-26 home win over the Commanders, the Seahawks burned bettors by failing to cover the 6-point spread.

SURVIVOR POOL

Recap

In Week 10, Survivor pool contestants around the country strongly selected the Bengals (-5.5) over Houston, Dallas (-16.5) over the Giants, Pittsburgh (-2.5) over Green Bay and Baltimore (-6) over the Browns.

The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.

In Week 10 of the NFL season, Cincinnati, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Baltimore made up over 87% of the selections in Survivor contests.

While both Dallas and Pittsburgh earned wins, many Survivor players were left upset when the Bengals and Ravens both suffered shocking home defeats.

To the delight of many Survivor Contest entrants, CeeDee Lamb made NFL history in Week 10 becoming the wide receiver to record at least 10 receptions and 150 receiving yards in three consecutive games :: Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports

Look-Ahead

Here are four games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 11.

Washington (-9.5) vs NY Giants

Detroit (-10.5) vs Chicago

Dallas (-11.5) at Carolina

San Francisco (-11.5) vs Tampa Bay

Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.

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