Betting Trends: Double-Digit NFL Favorites Are Covering the Spread

With three teams favored by 10-plus points this week, see how teams across the league have performed this season when it comes to double-digit spreads.

Week 11 is set up to be one of the most lopsided of the NFL season. The schedule includes three games with double-digit spreads, which ties for the most of any week this year; another game is a half-point shy of that mark. Here are the Week 11 games that feature a heavy favorite, according to SI Sportsbook: 

• The Cowboys are favored by 10.5 points on the road against the Panthers
• The 49ers are giving 12.5 to the visiting Buccaneers.
• The Dolphins are 13.5-point home favorites over the Raiders.
• The Commanders favored by 9.5 at home against the Giants.

Double-digit favorites are 8–3 against the spread and 10–1 straight up through 10 weeks, according to Odds Shark game logs. All three teams that are giving 10 or more points this week have already been in that position earlier in the year.

Dallas easily covered a season-high 17-point spread at home against New York in Week 10. The Cowboys came out on top, 49–17, but they were on the wrong side of another hefty line back in Week 3. On the road in Arizona, Dallas was installed as an 11-point favorite and went on to lose, 28–16. Not only was that the lone outright upset of 10-plus points this season, it was also the Cardinals’ only win until a week ago.

Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb had a big game in last week’s 49-17 drubbing of the Giants :: Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys are still the only team that’s been favored by double digits on the road and this could potentially be a tough spot to cover in Carolina. Dallas is 2–3 straight up and against the spread away from AT&T Stadium and the Panthers’ only win was at home in Week 8.

San Francisco is in a familiar situation as a double-digit favorite. The 49ers covered a 10.5-point line against the Giants in a 30–12 Week 3 win and a 14.5-point spread against the Cardinals the following week in a game they won 35–16. San Francisco is an NFL-best 10–2 against the spread at home over the last two seasons and is up against a Tampa Bay  team that kept things close as a 10-point road underdog in a 24–18 Week 8 loss to the Bills.

Miami has been in this position before and covered sizable spreads in back-to-back weeks. The league’s highest scoring team was favored by 12.5 over the Giants in Week 5 in a game the Dolphins won 31–16. The next week they gave 14 to Carolina and covered with room to spare in a 41–21 triumph.

Sunday’s 13.5-point underdog position is far and away the most points Las Vegas has gotten all year. The Raiders have also won two in a row since firing Josh McDaniels and four of their last six overall. However, Miami is coming off its bye week and is 4–0 straight up and against the spread at home. Each of the Dolphins’ wins at Hard Rock Stadium have been by 14 or more points, including their historic 70–20 blowout of the Broncos.

As for the game that comes close to the 10-point threshold, the Giants account for four of the 11 instances in which a team has been a double-digit underdog and they’ve gone 1–3 against the spread in that position. On the other hand, the Commanders are 0–2 against the spread as a favorite of six-plus points this season, including a 40–20 upset loss to the Bears at home.

Other than Dallas’ outright loss to Arizona, the Bills account for the other two losses against the spread as a double-digit favorite. Buffalo hasn’t covered since Oct. 1 and has failed to do so in its last three games against the Jets, which is something to keep in mind Sunday with New York installed as a 7.5-point underdog.

The first 10 weeks of the season have shown us that teams favored by 10 or more points cover at a high clip, which should inspire some confidence in the Cowboys, Dolphins and 49ers come Sunday.

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