NBA Best Bets and Bold Predictions: Nets vs. Heat

Miami, winner of six straight, is favored at home Thursday against Brooklyn, which has the league’s best record against the spread.

Kyle Wood | Nov 16, 2023

NBA Best Bets and Bold Predictions: Nets vs. Heat /

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The Heat host the Nets in Miami on Thursday for the second time this season. Brooklyn came out on top 109–105 the last time these teams took the floor at the Kayesa Center, but the Heat haven’t lost since.

Miami has rattled off six straight wins since that Nov. 1 defeat behind career-best numbers from Bam Adebayo. Meanwhile, the Nets are headed to South Florida with a two-game winning streak of their own.

The Heat are missing Tyler Herro (ankle) for the second installment of this four-game season series against Brooklyn, which will be without both Ben Simmons (hip) and Cam Thomas (ankle).

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Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat Odds

The Nets got a big boost from their bench the last time they were in Miami. Brooklyn’s second unit outscored Miami’s, 50–26, behind 17 points from Lonnie Walker IV. That’s in part how the visitors were able to survive Herro’s 30-point barrage on top of 21 from Adebayo and another 20 from Jimmy Butler.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Nets have a clear edge over their opponent. They outshot the Heat 16–13 from beyond the arc in the first meeting and they rank third in three-point percentage (38) and are tied for the third-most makes per game (15.5). Miami is a middle-of-the-pack three-point shooting team and has been one of the league’s worst teams at defending the three.

Brooklyn has been far and away the best team against the spread in the NBA with a 9–1–1 mark. That includes a 6–1–1 record as an underdog, including an upset as a 6.5-point underdog in the first game against the Heat. Miami has one of the league’s worst cover rates with a 4–7 record against the number. Even on this six-game winning streak, Eric Spoelstra’s team has only covered three times. Take the Nets to keep it close on the road.

Adebayo corralled 14 rebounds in the first meeting and he’s averaging a career-best 10.5 on the year. The Nets are one of the best rebounding teams but they don’t have any dominant rebounders to neutralize the impact of Adebayo, who’s double-doubled in five straight games. Bank on Adebayo to have another impact game on the glass.

Best Bet: Nets +3.5 (-110)

Bold Prediction: Bam Adebayo Records 14+ Rebounds

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Published Nov 16, 2023

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.