NFL Week 11 Expert Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets

The spread is more than nine points in five matchups in Week 11. Our betting analysts weigh in on which teams will cover.

If you haven't entered SI Sportsbook’s Perfect Ten contest for the chance to win $10,000 yet, what are you waiting for? 

Simply pick 10 games against the spread correctly and you can win up to $10,000. The more picks you get correct, the more free bets you earn. And what’s even better? You’re not competing against anyone and there’s no fee to enter. Just pick the winners. That’s it! 

Click here to play for free in Week 11.

We have gathered SI’s experts to give their picks, so you can make the most informed decisions and be well on your way to that $10,000 payout.

Below are our best bets and picks for Week 11 of the NFL season.

SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 challenge*

Bill Enright (7-3): Dolphins -10.5

There's five matchups with a spread of nine or more points, that's half the slate for the Perfect 10 contest. While the Cowboys, 49ers, Commanders, and Lions are all heavy favorites, just like the Dolphins, Miami is the only one of the bunch coming off their bye week. An extra week to prepare for offensive wizard Mike McDaniels? Sign Me Up! Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders don't have the firepower on offense to keep up with the explosive Dolphins. Miami covers this one easily.

Matt Verderame (6-4): Texans -4.5

The Cardinals will be more competitive with Kyler Murray on the field, but they’re still a bad team going on the road with a good, young team standing across the field. C.J. Stroud is playing at an MVP level, and he’s getting Nico Collins back on the outside. Expect a bunch of points and Houston to pull away in the second half.

Craig Ellenport (6-4): Dolphins -10.5

So we’ve got this narrative that Miami beats up on sub-.500 teams and loses to teams with a winning record. The Raiders fall in the middle at 5-5. But here’s the deal: Take away back-to-back home wins against the two lowly New York teams the last two weeks and Las Vegas is 3-5. Which means they fall into the category of getting blown out by Miami. On top of that, the Raiders have allowed an average of 27 points in five road games this season while the Dolphins have averaged 42.5 points in their four home wins. I can’t imagine a game more conducive to laying a lot of points.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars look to get back in the winning column with an AFC South matchup against the Titans :: Michael Longo/USA TODAY Network

Kyle Wood (6-3): Jaguars -6.5

The tide has turned in this AFC South rivalry. From 2017 to 2021, Tennessee won nine of 10 against Jacksonville. But the Jaguars swept the Titans in 2022 and are favored by almost a touchdown Sunday in their first meeting of the year. This game is suddenly very important for Jacksonville, which is trying to hold off Houston and Indianapolis in the division race. Yes, the Jags got boat-raced last week by the 49ers, but Tennessee — which is 0–5 straight up and 1–4 against the spread on the road — is not on San Francisco’s level. This is a bounceback spot for Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence.

Gilberto Manzano (4-6): Texans -4.5

The Cardinals are respectable again with the returns of Kyler Murray and James Conner, but the defense hasn’t received reinforcements. C.J. Stroud could go off again vs. an Arizona defense that’s allowing 26.3 points per game, which ranked 28th heading into Week 11. Expect an exciting game with Stroud and Murray lighting up the scoreboard, but eventually Houston should pull away to cover the spread at home.

Jen Piacenti (4-6) : Steelers +4.5

Mike Tomlin has the Steelers at 6-3 despite being outgained in all nine contests this season. Part of that success could be that they have let their run game lead, and yes, this will be one of the tougher matchups to run on this year as the Brown’s defense has been stout; however, the Browns will be starting rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, so I’ll bet it’s the Steelers defense that will be center stage. Kenny Pickett has enough experience to keep the Steelers within 4.5, and likely win this one outright. Oh, and did I mention The Browns are 4-16-1 vs. the Steelers across the last ten years?

Michael Fabiano (3-7): Steelers +4.5

I feel like I’m falling into a trap with this game, because Perfect 10 released the spreads before the announcement that Deshaun Watson was out of the season. But, with green rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting for the Browns, I will fall into the trap! The line has actually moved to Browns -1, so you’re getting an extra 3.5 points in the Perfect 10 challenge on SI Sportsbook. I’ll take any advantage I can get! I’ll take Pittsburgh.

Conor Orr (2-7): Panthers +10.5

Let’s. Get. Weird. Who doesn’t love placing cold hard cash on the worst team in football? Here’s my rationale: Dallas has played down to bad opponents during the year and has the tendency to show up and sleepwalk every now and then. Similarly, I feel like we’ve seen some growth out of Bryce Young. This staff in Carolina certainly sees the writing on the wall: If nothing improves, Young takes priority. So, here’s a good start: playing Dallas close enough to cover the spread. 

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