Bettors Demolish Sportsbooks As NFL Favorites Cover at Near Historic Clip In Week 12

Week 12 in the NFL was a profitable week for anyone who bet on the favorites.

After NFL favorites posted colossal success both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in Week 12, sportsbooks around the country reported significant losses.

In a week that commenced with three Thanksgiving Day matchups and a Black Friday AFC East rivalry matchup, favorites dominated the slate with a 12-4 (SU) and (ATS) mark. NFL fans nearly witnessed betting history as 13 or more favorites had never previously covered versus the number in a single week of NFL wagering in the Super Bowl era.

After Chicago (+3; +125) upset Minnesota on Monday night, they joined Green Bay (+8.5; +350), the Giants (+4.5; +195), Atlanta (+2; +110) as the only underdogs to pull off SU and ATS upsets.

Overall, the higher power-ranked teams by oddsmakers possess an amazing 122-58 SU (67.8%) record.

Jalen Hurts and The Eagles improved to an NFL-best 10-1 after a thrilling 37-34 overtime win over Buffalo on Sunday :: (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

After earning a thrilling 37-34 overtime win over Buffalo in the game of the week, Philadelphia now owns both the league’s best record at 10-1 as well as the best ATS mark of 7-2-2 (77.8%).

While the Broncos extended their winning streak to five games with a 29-12 win over Cleveland, Denver still remains difficult to trust against the spread posting a disappointing 4-6-1 ATS mark on the season.

Following a 24-21 win over Houston, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars remain the only NFL team undefeated on the road (5-0) this season. Jacksonville, who improved to 9-3 on the year, now own the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.

On the flip side, Carolina continues to be the most lucrative team to fade after dropping to an NFL worst 1-10 this season. The Panthers have only covered the spread once in 11 games (1-8-2 ATS).

Following the Chicago-Minnesota NFC North tilt produced only one touchdown on Monday night, bettors witnessed primetime games improve to 29-9 (76.3%) to the under. In simple wagering terms, if a bettor were to blindly wager $100 on every primetime game this season they would find a profit of $1,879.

Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins won on the road in Week 12, beating their AFC East rivals in New Y :: AP Photo/Adam Hunger

12-Leg Parlay Results In Massive Hit

One bettor named @jay777_NY on X placed a $40 12-leg parlay wager consisting of 10 favorites, one underdog and one game total.

The investment started with Miami (-9.5) and over 40.5 on Black Friday, and proceeded to include ten games on the Sunday slate: Tennessee (-3.5), Pittsburgh (-120), Jacksonville (-118), Indianapolis (-134), Giants (+3.5) Rams (-124), Denver (-118), Kansas City (-8.5), Philadelphia (-166) and Baltimore (-164).

The $40 wager at odds of +112238 returned a solid payout of $45,238.

Running Back Two-TD SGP Leads To Five-Figure Cash

In Week 12, several players scored multiple touchdowns. One bettor by the name of @Bunn_No_B on X profited heavily from the rare feat of multiple players scoring at least twice.

The incredible $41 wager involved Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, Rams RB Kyren Williams and Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco all scoring 2+ touchdowns in their respective matchups.

After Taylor scored twice in the early slate, both Williams and Pacheco each scored in the first half of their games. After Pacheco scored just a few minutes into the third quarter against the Raiders, the wager only needed Williams to find pay dirt once more.

The $41 wager returned a whopping $10,007 after the Rams emerging talent hauled in his second receiving touchdown of the game early in the fourth quarter of Los Angeles’ drubbing of Arizona.

Betting Landscape

In Week 12, bettors witnessed road teams go both 9-7 (SU) and ATS. On the year, home teams own a solid 99-76 SU (56.6%) mark, as well as an even split at 85-85-5 (ATS) (50%) on the season.

*Editor's Note: International games (5 are not included in home / road stats

Bettors watched favorites incredibly go 12-4 both SU and ATS, leaving favorites with a 96-79-5 ATS (54.9%) edge on the year.

Games were higher scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 9-7 mark to the over on the week. On the year, unders still own a sizable lead with a mark of 106-73-1 (59.2%).

DOLPHINS RETURN THE HAIL MARY FOR A 99-YARD TOUCHDOWN TO GO INTO HALFTIME 🤯

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/iifh5jq2RF

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 24, 2023

Bad Beat

Reverse ‘Fail Mary’ Delivers All-Time Bad Beat on Black Friday

Just seconds before halftime, the 2023 Jets handed bettors a Black Friday Bad Beat for the ages.

After Brandon Echols’ pick-six of Tua Tagovailoa cut the Miami lead to 10-6, Jets DB D.J. Reed intercepted Miami’s signal-caller with only :02 seconds remaining in the first half.

From the New York 49-yard line, Tim Boyle launched a Hail Mary pass as the clock expired.

As the ball reached the Miami goal line, Dolphins safety Jevon Holland intercepted the pass and returned it 99 yards for arguably the most improbable pick-six returns you will ever see.

The ‘Fail Mary’ pass by New York had a massive impact on first half wagering as sportsbooks held notable liability on the Jets +6.5 as well as Under 20.5.

Miami’s improbable 17-6 lead at the break, resulted in significant money changing hands that left bettors in stunned disbelief.

CJ Stroud and the Texans faced the Jaguars in Week 12 but both teams didn't score enough points to hit the over :: Sam Greene/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK

Significant Decisions In Favor of Sportsbooks Limited To Totals

74% of money on Jaguars / Texans (48)

• Despite CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence shining, bettors were left with a total of 45 combined points - falling three points shy of surpassing the total.

79% of money on Cleveland / Denver Under (37.5)

• While many bettors were backing a low scoring affair between two defensive clubs, a 21 point second half sent the game over the posted total.

82% of money on LA Chargers / Baltimore Over (49)

• The highest posted total on the Sunday betting board, finished well under (30 combined points) the projection of oddsmakers as another prime time under cashed.

SURVIVOR POOL

Recap

In Week 12, Survivor pool contestants around the country strongly selected the Cowboys (-8) over the Commanders, Detroit (-8.5) over Green Bay, Miami (-9.5) over the Jets and Kansas City (-8.5) over Las Vegas.

The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.

In Week 12 of the NFL season, Dallas, Detroit, Miami and the Chiefs made up over 97% of the selections in Survivor contests.

While Dallas, Miami and the Chiefs all earned easy wins, many Survivor players were eliminated when Green Bay stunned the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Look-Ahead

Here are five games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 13.

Dallas (-8.5) at Seattle (Thursday)

Miami (-9.5) at Washington

LA Chargers (-6.5) at New England

Kansas City (-6.5) at Green Bay (Sunday Night Football)

Jacksonville (-8.5) vs Cincinnati (Monday Night Football)

Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.